Supply Chain Financing

The winds of trade are changing. The pandemic, geopolitical upheavals, supply chain disruptions, inflation, the end of historically low interest rates, and other challenges have left scars on companies of all sizes, in all jurisdictions.
 

This Citi GPS Supply Chain Financing Report offers a comprehensive analysis of global trade dynamics, economic performance, and emerging trends in supply chain management. 
Despite the upheaval, the overriding theme has been resilience. The lessons learned – including a focus on working capital – will not be easily forgotten. 

Yet over the past two years, the global economy has outperformed bearish forecasts, bolstered by strong consumer spending and a healthy U.S. corporate sector. The geopolitical landscape is unpredictable, of course, with President Trump’s return to the White House introducing trade uncertainties that could have significant consequences for companies and countries.

The operating environment right now though, weeks into the new administration, remains favorable, driven by rate cuts in the West and government stimulus in China. At the start of 2025, Citi economists predict 2.6% growth this year, with inflationary pressures in global goods markets expected to remain subdued.
This year, 58% of suppliers surveyed reported sales orders meeting or exceeding expectations, while 61% of large corporates anticipate increased exports.  

Key to this optimism is the realization that globalization is not retreating but evolving. Shifts in supply chains reflect a strategic realignment aimed at mitigating risks and enhancing resilience while achieving efficiencies where possible. Diversification efforts are accelerating, with 38% of corporate survey respondents planning to reduce reliance on China. This reconfiguration creates new opportunities. Over a third of suppliers are benefiting from new sales corridors after securing orders from previously untapped countries.

It will take time to fully understand any supply chain reconfigurations, but some corridors could benefit. Should corporates adopt more China-plus-one strategies, China-to-ASEAN corridors may see growth. The Asia-Latam corridor also has potential. 

Generative AI could streamline trade: 58% of large corporations are increasing investments in digital innovations. Large corporates hope GenAI could enhance treasury operations by unlocking trapped liquidity and enabling faster, more responsive inventory management. 

This report delivers insights about global trade, the economic outlook, and the challenges and ambitions of large corporates and smaller suppliers. We also explore the changing role of export credit agencies, as well as trends in payables and receivables finance and digitization. 

We hope this report provides a comprehensive perspective on the shifting trade landscape and the opportunities that lie ahead for businesses.