Markets are looking for evidence of tariff talk and/or some sort of Fed put, but so far there's nothing concrete. We look beyond China to consider negotiation possibilities, from potentially quick deals to tougher cases.

We explore the implications of now-paused U.S. tariffs for global trade and what may lie ahead, highlighting potential impacts on the European Union and the emerging markets that make up “Factory Asia.”

Pausing reciprocal tariffs excluding China doesn't mean the U.S. economy has avoided slower growth and higher inflation, as the average U.S. effective tariff rate remains about 21 percentage points above its level at the start of 2025. Uncertainty will persist; we still expect a Fed cut in May or June.

Traditional funding strategies for infrastructure projects rely heavily on state and local borrowing and direct federal funding. But budget deficits and evolving needs suggest a larger role for the private sector, and a new U.S. sovereign wealth fund also may emerge as a vehicle. We explore these new approaches in a new Must C note.

In a new Citi Research Must C report, Chief Economist Nathan Sheets and team look at foreign direct investment (FDI) and the potential global implications of Trump administration policies. 

In our new Must C report, a team led by Chief Economist Nathan Sheets looks at the economy Trump inherits in his return to the White House and the new unknowns introduced by his reelection.