The following is a freely accessible summary of a published Citi Research report.
A new Citi Research report from a team led by Arkady Gevorkyan looks at trends in nuclear energy and how the next decade looms as a pivotal point for global growth.
Nuclear energy, one the largest low-carbon sources of electricity, is poised for global growth thanks to such drivers as the potential acceleration of new technologies, net zero aspirations and the importance of low-carbon sources of power. While we&rsquo;ve observed different trends between developed-markets and emerging-markets economies, the majority of countries are considering keeping or expanding nuclear energy in their energy mixes.
Why do we see the next decade as pivotal for nuclear energy&rsquo;s prospects? One reason is that small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced reactors (ARs) are set to shape the technology&rsquo;s future, sealing its role in the energy transition and the broader energy mix. As SMRs are getting ready to be scaled, new factors could influence nuclear energy&rsquo;s future in the U.S., including coal-to-nuclear switching, the demand growth for data centers driven by AI, and serving distant areas for oil &amp; gas exploration. Such discussions are notable because the U.S.&rsquo;s 95 operational nuclear reactors are the highest number globally, and nuclear energy represents close to 20% of its broader energy mix. &nbsp;
In our base and bull scenarios, global nuclear-energy capacity will experience meaningful growth between now and 2050. At the COP28 climate-change conference, more than 20 countries committed to tripling their nuclear capacity by that date. (Projections are for nuclear-energy capacity in the U.S. to increase 12%.)
<img src="/rcs/v1/media/citigpa/akpublic/storage/retrieveMediaFile/6669c6ae9bee100354764eaf.png" alt="carts - bear/base/bull scenarios for nuclear capacity globally and scenarios for nuclear energy capacity in the US">
The International Energy Agency sees nuclear-energy generation hitting record highs in the next few years. An additional 29 Gigawatts of new nuclear capacity is expected to come online globally, while existing nuclear plants continue to seek lifetime extensions. In the U.S., we don&rsquo;t expect forced retirements of nuclear plants anytime soon. We do estimate that generation by nuclear energy in the U.S. could see slightly longer down time in the second half of this year due to a number of plants&rsquo; refuelment schedules, and such down time could drive more demand for other energy sources. (Historically, gas and coal have filled the gap.)
To forecast nuclear generation, we&rsquo;ve developed a robust machine-learning algorithm using a 10-year training period of historical generation data and looking two years ahead. We include outages associated with the refuelment cycle and control for the length of those outages. The accuracy ratio for an out-of-sample two-year period is at 94%. Uranium demand also correlates closely with that schedule, as utilities typically need to procure uranium at least two years in advance of a refuelment period. &nbsp;
An industry rejuvenation?
Nuclear energy&rsquo;s development in the U.S. could contribute to global appreciation and adoption of it. At the moment, U.S. discussions of nuclear energy range across a number of topics, which we explore in greater detail in the report.
The past six to 12 months have seen a number of license-renewal applications to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission seeking lifetime extensions for reactors. As a result of such extensions, we project uranium demand will be higher by 3 million pounds in 2030, 13 million pounds in 2040, and 17 million pounds in 2050 &mdash; projections that don&rsquo;t include potential new builds. On average, we estimate, close to 50 million pounds of U308 is consumed annually in the U.S.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has made a conditional commitment to provide $1.5 billion to reactivate the Palisades nuclear plant, marking the first nuclear-plant restart in the U.S. and setting a precedent. We&rsquo;ve included Palisades in our 2028&ndash;2029 balances for fuel procurement, given its potential restart date of 2030. And there are ongoing discussions about restarting the Three Mile Island Nuclear Generating Station.
The DOE has also advocated for converting retiring coal planets to use nuclear energy, which would require about 200 Gigawatts electric of nuclear capacity, with SMRs seen as playing a key technological role. But we note caveats: The timing on rolling out SMRs must match up with the coal-plant retirements, and an adequate, trained labor force is needed to operate the SMRs. &nbsp;
There are additional nuclear-energy demand factors to consider in pondering nuclear energy&rsquo;s future, including data centers/AI, the oil upstream sector and space exploration. Use cases for SMRs are gaining traction, with the U.S. an extremely attractive market for baseload power.
The U.S. remains a hotbed for SMR development, with supportive policies and available funding. We think SMRs could represent up to 15% of global uranium demand by 2040. We see the possibility that three SMRs could be connected to the grid by 2034, with another five or six connections in the U.S. alone after that. But we also note that nuclear projects, including SMRs, require significant upfront investment. Costs are high due to technological complexity, stringent safety requirements and the need for specialized materials and skilled labor. While the DOE estimates the first-of-a-kind cost of a well-executed nuclear project at ~$6,200 per kilowatt, recent nuclear construction projects in the U.S. have had overnight capital costs of more than $10,000 per kilowatt. That said, subsequent deployments are expected to benefit from technology learning, supply-chain maturity and manufacturing improvements. Those could drive down capital costs and unlock deployment at scale.
Securing financing is an additional challenge due to the history of nuclear projects&rsquo; cost overruns; the transition from large, monolithic infrastructure projects to modular ones may alleviate some uncertainty. Still, recent cost estimates for several SMR demonstration projects have increased more than 70% from initial estimates due to inflationary pressures, supply-chain constraints and evolving designs.
<img src="/rcs/v1/media/citigpa/akpublic/storage/retrieveMediaFile/6669c7024b4cf80a7f1254ab.png" alt="charts-forecast for new AR/SMR builds globally and Number of ongoing SMR projects by country and status by IEA">
Other factors to consider in exploring nuclear-energy trends:
<ul>
<li style="font-size: 16px;">Nuclear energy has bipartisan support, an exception to the norm during a U.S. election year.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li style="font-size: 16px;">We forecast AI/data-center growth to increase U.S. total power demand by ~456 Terawatt hours by 2030, the equivalent of ~11% of total U.S. power generation. While we see near-term generation additions coming from gas plants, we also see incremental investment opportunities for the existing U.S. nuclear fleet. Due to nuclear plants&rsquo; seasonality and turnaround schedules, we assume data-center customers would prefer to collocate data centers with nuclear plants in a cluster for improved reliability and stability.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li style="font-size: 16px;">The provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could help provide stability. The IRA established a production tax credit of $15 per Megawatt hour on electricity generated from nuclear facilities from 2024 through 2032. This serves as a structural price floor that could prevent downside loss in a volatile market. U.S. regulated utilities with nuclear assets are likely to receive production tax credits that gradually ramp from 2024 through 2027 before reversing in 2032.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li style="font-size: 16px;">Long-duration contracts with data-center developers could receive premium pricing, with a recent Talen Energy-Amazon deal providing an example. Incremental power demand from AI/data centers and electrification could drive efforts to improve nuclear plants&rsquo; utilization and deliver incremental capacity uprates.</li>
</ul>

Existing Citi Research clients can follow <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/t/eppublic/385BK" data-link-source="tiny">this link</a> to access the full report, which also includes sections exploring the potential impacts of nuclear energy trends on commodities and equities.

Accelerating power demand, evolving policy and market trends have heightened the focus on the U.S.'s 95 operational nuclear reactors, which account for ~20% of the U.S. power mix. We look at what may lie ahead and introduce our nuclear-plants generation model.

Inside Nuclear Energy Trends in the U.S.

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A new Macro to Micro report from a team led by Scott Gruber looks at how U.S. power-load growth through 2030 will be driven by the power demands of new data centers, generating additional demand for natural gas. But determining how much added demand is key to separating potential from hype.
Anything AI-related is getting significant attention, with a spotlight on the theme of AI and data centers driving power demand. Any long-range forecast for a technology growth sector requires broad error bars, but leveraging recent modeling from our Technology and Telecom teams allows us to present a forecast for AI/data-center associated power demand based upon a chip-supply approach. Our base case is for U.S. power demand associated with data centers to jump from ~21.4 Gigawatts (GW) in 2023 to ~52.0 GW in 2030, or from 187 terawatt-hours (TWh) to 456 TWh. As a result, data centers would equate to 10.9% of total U.S. power demand in 2030, up from 4.5% today.
That assumes ~80% of global data-center growth is in North America and ~73% in the U.S. As we translate IT loads to power demand, our assumption is that power utilization efficiency gradually declines in line with historic relationships, and that data-center power capacity utilization levels are ~65%.
Our 2028-2030 base case is built on the implication that U.S. utilities will slow the retirement of coal, gas and nuclear-power plants and execute on plans to build power plants and transmission and distribution infrastructure to keep the lights on. This implies increases of ~4% to ~6% in U.S. utilities&rsquo; capex budgets on average from 2024 to 2030, with large geographic and company-specific diversions in outcomes. These capex increases are driven by ~26 GW of gas new-build plants, some other power resources, and associated infrastructure investments.
While data-center-driven gas demand is certainly positive for the domestic natural-gas market, at least through 2030, the overall market outlook appears more dependent on LNG export growth as well as the depth of low-cost gas inventory to meet rising calls on U.S. gas production. Our bull case for domestic gas assumes healthy demand growth from the power sector and full utilization of LNG plants under construction.
But in our note we go several steps further, including assessing how data-center demand could increase global demand for natural gas. We also investigate how the supply chain may respond to meet the incremental call on gas with respect to incremental gas rigs needed and pipeline requirements.
In a bull case for U.S. natural gas, the data-center-driven growth in power demand for gas is incremental to LNG export growth (~12.6 billion cubic feet per day [bcfd] under construction but with upside), and complemented by other growth drivers of as much as 3 bcfd. That means the call on U.S. gas could grow by ~20 bcfd or more by 2030. In this scenario, growth in low-cost gas appears insufficient to meet the call, requiring activation of Tier II Haynesville/Marcellus acreage as well as Eagle Ford dry gas, Mid-Con gas and S. Delaware gas. We think this would push the marginal cost of gas from ~$2.75 per million cubic feet (mcf) toward ~$3.75/mcf and require ~70 incremental gas rigs.
While the U.S. should remain the leader in data-center expansion, the build-out will likely be world-wide, driving power demand growth. This could in turn increase demand growth for gas and hence LNG. But the data-center expansion will likely coincide with a slowing demand growth profile for LNG given renewables growth in China and nuclear restarts in Japan, to name just two factors. At the same time, LNG production capacity is set to expand by ~24 bcfd based only upon facilities under construction, with a long list of projects in the works. Therefore, we see a risk of oversupply in the global LNG market driving the need to curtail shipments by an estimated ~2 bcfd in 2026, rising to ~9 bcfd in 2030. Moreover, the U.S. may need to shoulder a majority of these curtailments given relative costs; the curtailments could be larger than the incremental gas demand growth from data-center expansion.
A reduction in the potential call on U.S. gas from ~20 bcfd toward 10&ndash;14 bcfd would have a material implication for the marginal cost of domestic gas. We forecast another ~5.5 bcfd of growth from the Permian, ~2.5 bcfd of growth from Dorado and the potential for 3+ bcfd of growth from each of Appalachia and Haynesville. Thus, low-cost basins appear to have the potential to meet all the incremental call if material LNG curtailments arise. That said, we believe there could be modest upward pressure on the marginal cost of U.S. gas from ~$2.75/mcf to ~$3.25/mcf over the next several years based upon resource maturation in Appalachia and Haynesville. From a rig-count perspective, the lower call on U.S. gas would require an incremental ~40 rigs.

Our new report, Data Centers Driving U.S. Gas: Hyperscale or Over-Hyped?, also includes a review of how we forecast global demand for data-center power demand and extensive equity-strategy recommendations. It&rsquo;s available in full to existing Citi Research clients <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/t/eppublic/35UnN" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link-source="tiny">here</a>.

Hyperscale or Over-Hyped?

AI-driven power demand has captured the spotlight; the challenge now is separating potential from hype. Data-center-driven U.S. power-load growth through 2030 will generate added demand for natural gas, but the long-term bull case for U.S. gas still primarily rests upon liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

Data Centers Driving U.S. Gas

Japan&rsquo;s economy is emerging from 30 years of deflation and has the rare opportunity to shift to private sector led, self-sustaining growth. We explore a roadmap of how this shift might be achieved.
A new Macro to Micro report from a team led by economist Katsuhiko Aiba looks at Japan&rsquo;s opportunity to emerge from 30 years of deflation and shift to self-sustaining growth led by the private sector. The aging of Japanese society has left investors seemingly less than confident about a recovery in consumer spending and sticky 2% inflation, but we see 2024 as the first year of a virtuous cycle of prices, wages and consumption &mdash; though a key factor is whether senior citizens without sufficient savings will participate in the labor force.
The norms for Japanese prices and wages began changing in 2022, as rising prices were fueled by the yen&rsquo;s depreciation and a supply shock, combined with a labor shortage. Wage hikes agreed to in this year&rsquo;s annual shuntō, or &ldquo;spring wage offensive&rdquo; &mdash; where thousands of Japan unions negotiate wages with employers simultaneously &mdash; are now being reflected in regular wages, and we think real wage growth will turn positive for the July&ndash;September time period. This improved income environment should translate to solid growth for Japan&rsquo;s economy starting in this year&rsquo;s second half, with growth driven by domestic demand centered on personal consumption.
<img src="/rcs/v1/media/citigpa/akpublic/storage/retrieveMediaFile/66db1de049e36e74ff0659bd.jpg" alt="" width="100%">
&nbsp;
The increases agreed to in the shuntō represent a permanent rise and so have a big impact on consumption. Real wages fell 2.2% in fiscal 2023, but we forecast that they&rsquo;ll turn positive and grow 0.3% in fiscal 2024. At the same time, we think the wealth effect due to equities&rsquo; gains will support consumption, particularly among older consumers. Past research indicates that each &yen;100 rise in financial assets&rsquo; value adds &yen;2&ndash;&yen;4 to growth in personal consumption. For our purposes, we assume &yen;3 and estimate the boost to personal consumption will turn positive at 0.6% this fiscal year, compared with &ndash;0.4% last fiscal year.
A note of caution, however: While the wage rise is the largest in 33 years, Japan&rsquo;s population has aged during this period, meaning the sensitivity of personal consumption to real wages may have declined. Forty percent of consumers are pensioners, and few of them benefit from wage growth. Workers also pay more of their wages in social-welfare levies than they did 30 years ago. The key question is whether this year&rsquo;s second-half recovery in personal consumption will help sustain inflation and make interest rates meaningful.
If this strength in personal consumption is realized, we&rsquo;d expect companies to increasingly pass on personnel costs via service prices, making Japanese inflation stickier. We project core inflation of 2.5% for 2024 and 2.4% for 2025, following 2023&rsquo;s 3.1% reading. We expect an increase of nearly 3% in base wages in next year&rsquo;s shuntō, given higher inflation, strong corporate earnings and the labor shortage.
Should this scenario come to pass alongside a soft landing for the U.S. and other world economies, we&rsquo;d expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise rates 25 basis points in December as well as in April, then look to gauge the impact of rate hikes and test the neutral interest rate &mdash; where both inflationary and deflationary pressures are absent &mdash; with hikes coming every six months. While the neutral interest rate&rsquo;s level is very uncertain, at this point we put it at 1.5%, a level we expect the policy rate to reach in October 2026.
Interest rate impacts
The consensus is that interest-rate rises accompanied by an improving economy and wage growth are positive for households overall. The BoJ&rsquo;s modeling, for example, finds that there&rsquo;d be net growth in interest income for the 77% of households that don&rsquo;t have a mortgage; for most households that are repaying a mortgage, each 1-percentage-point increase in short-term interest rates would cause a rise in the net interest burden of less than 2% of disposable income. Because we expect annual growth in nominal wages of around 3% in a regime of economic growth and changes in inflation norms, we foresee income growth after the payment of taxes and social-insurance levies, with most households able to cover the increased interest-payment burden with growth in employment income. However, some older-generation households may not be able to cope with a rise of 2% in the cost of living, meaning the safety net may need to be extended.
Corporate borrowings have grown relative to GDP since the pandemic, but much of this growth has been due to companies building cash holdings due to pandemic-related uncertainties, and a similar amount of cash and deposits has built up on the asset side of corporate balance sheets. From a long-term perspective, companies have come to depend less on borrowings, constraining capex to within the bounds of cash flow. This makes them less sensitive to interest rates; should the economy remain solid, we&rsquo;d expect capex to also remain robust.
According to BoJ modeling of corporate earnings, if interest rates on borrowings rose to around 2%, operating profits would be sufficient to cover interest payments. But we note this is a static simulation; an improved economy would likely drive growth in operating profits, with corporate earnings becoming more resilient in the face of interest-rate rises. Still, the burden of interest payments could be a drag for some small companies, and it may prove necessary to extend the safety net here as well.
A roadmap for productivity improvements
Since the bursting of the Bubble Economy in the early 1990s, improving productivity has been discussed as a long-term issue for Japan&rsquo;s economy. This discussion has grown in importance in recent years given the falling population and labor shortages, with the case made that an increase in inflation could boost the economy&rsquo;s productivity and potential growth rate. The idea is that positive general price inflation improves the signaling functionality of wages and prices, thereby making resource allocation more efficient and having a positive effect on productivity. It&rsquo;s a discussion we find interesting, while noting that at this point it&rsquo;s but a theory, one that will be tested by the economy&rsquo;s actual performance.
If the potential growth rate rises and real wage growth accelerates, we could see a positive cycle in prices, wages and personal consumption; once the start of such a cycle has been confirmed this year, we think the focus will shift to productivity improvements and the potential growth rate &mdash; if the external environment allows.
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 208.625px;" border="1"><colgroup><col style="width: 99.8879%;"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 18px;">
<td style="height: 18px;">&nbsp;How heightened inflation can raise potential growth rates, as outlined at a BoJ workshop</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 32px;">
<td style="height: 32px;">Under a product cycle, it is desirable for the relative price of a new product to decline over time after it is introduced, but there is a price rigidity. if the inflation rate is positive, resource allocation may become more efficient as its relative price declines.&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 32px;">
<td style="height: 32px;">Productive firms with high mark-up do not pass on costs much. Under this situation, a guarual rise in general price will encourage a shift in demand to highly productive firms, lending to more efficient resources allocation.&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 32px;">
<td style="height: 32px;">In a market with excessive entrants, if general prices rise and costs increase, it is possible that reductions in markups will encourage companies to exit, correcting distortion in resource allocation.&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 32px;">
<td style="height: 32px;">Wage rigidity makes it difficult to set wages according to productivity. Under higher inflation rate, ensuring flexibility in wage setting will enhance the signaling functions of wages, make resource allocation more efficient, and lead to increase productivity.&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 62.625px;">
<td style="height: 62.625px;">
<table id="rendition_table_4" class="x-rsch-table CIRTable 0 image-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; width: 884px; padding: 0pt 4.68pt; color: rgb(15, 22, 50); font-size: 8pt; line-height: 8pt; font-family: 'Citi Sans Condensed'; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: left; white-space: normal; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; height: 51.625px;" aria-label="Figure 9. How heightened inflation can raise potential growth rates, as outlined at a BoJ workshop Source: BoJ, Citi Research If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-800-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788.">
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<p class="x-rsch-paragraph CIRSourceNote paragraph-with-content" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 2pt 0px; color: rgb(15, 22, 50); font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; font-family: var(--font-family-citi-sans); padding-top: 3px; padding-bottom: 6px; overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word;">&copy; 2024 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.&nbsp;
<p class="x-rsch-paragraph CIRSourceNote paragraph-with-content" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 2pt 0px; color: rgb(15, 22, 50); font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; font-family: var(--font-family-citi-sans); padding-top: 3px; padding-bottom: 6px; overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word;">Source: BoJ, Citi Research
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Labor-force changes?
There are doubts about whether 2% inflation can be maintained over the long term as Japan&rsquo;s population ages. The optimistic view is that an ongoing labor shortage will help sustain positive wage growth and 2% inflation, but neither of those things will be sustainable if the 3% increase in wage costs that&rsquo;s consistent with 2% inflation isn&rsquo;t passed on in sales prices. And such pass-throughs won&rsquo;t be possible if consumers&rsquo; purchasing power is too weak &mdash; a potential issue given that 40% of the Japanese population are pensioners, not workers.
As the number of people working who are pension-fund members declines, an increase in the adjustment ratio for pension benefits paid can&rsquo;t be avoided. But declines in real pension benefits paid can be offset to some extent by growth in interest income. That said, we don&rsquo;t expect income growth to keep pace with price rises for some households, and so expect increases in labor-force participation.
A decline in real pension income caused an increase in labor-force participation by the older cohort in the 2010s; if the pace of the expected decrease in pensions&rsquo; real value accelerates, we think we&rsquo;ll see another increase in this participation. And, we note, the demand is there from firms facing labor shortages. There&rsquo;s also the possibility of changes to current government policy that pension benefits are reduced for people who choose to work, or the abolition of this policy.
The 1960s saw much higher labor-force participation from Japan&rsquo;s older cohort. While most older people then worked in agriculture, healthy life expectancies have lengthened and an easier work environment (such as remote work) is now taking shape. A situation in which weighting of pensions within older people&rsquo;s total income decreased and the linkage to wages increased could help maintain consumers&rsquo; overall purchasing power, making it possible to sustain a 2% inflation rate. &nbsp;

Our new report, Roadmap for an inflationary era: Outlook for economics, yen rates, equity strategy, and financials, also includes discussion of Japan&rsquo;s outlook from the point of view of yen rates, equity strategy, and financials. It&rsquo;s available in full to existing Citi Research clients <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/t/eppublic/3I8AE" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link-source="tiny">here</a>.

Japan&rsquo;s economy is emerging from 30 years of deflation and has the rare opportunity to shift to private sector led, self-sustaining growth. We explore a roadmap of how this shift might be achieved.

Japan’s Roadmap for an Inflationary Era

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