Research

English Survey

Spanish Survey

Ernesto Revilla

Julio Cesar Ruiz 

Felipe Juncal 

Download the full survey results here in <a href="https://ir.citi.com/J-hdYXqCk-xI2PQQiSmQOA8HV6q-aICIYvJhRmlMxz-qi-FhDrKvqS39RtfD7sLOj9Rd-4R24YZASiAR7gH3auJradvj378hiMlyqZ60RpBJPQPuP-G-5folxfCNWlgOsHu_I1puaUo%3D" target="_blank">English</a> and <a href="https://ir.citi.com/6tRAD9rWvI48jVA-ou70eVppJ8bJiyKiOc9xi80Ukefv6ztQ-VrkLuoUVqqD7e_Z2kPKwP3O8uRk7L0j2COV20dILjHny3muJU7cbVTz02s1lBvmVwlPCSkdMyAd5Z7SlE6KHvevRtg%3D" target="_blank">Spanish</a>.&nbsp;

All respondents project a rate cut in December’s monetary policy decision. The consensus estimates that Banxico's next move to the interest rate will be a 25-bp decrease in December. Of the 34 participants, 31 project a 25-bp reduction, while 3 respondents, a 50-bp rate cut. The median of the estimates for the interest rate by Y/E 2024 remained at 10.00%. For the end of 2025, the median of expectations was also unchanged at 8.00%, with a range from 7.50% to 9.00%.&nbsp;For the full month of November, the consensus forecasts for headline and core inflation are at 0.49% and 0.07% MoM, respectively. For the month of December, analysts’ consensus sees headline and core inflation at 0.50% MoM and 0.41%, respectively. As a result, 2024 annual headline and core inflation would stand at 4.38% (from 4.45% in the previous survey) and 3.59% (from 3.75%), respectively.&nbsp;For Y/E 2025, inflation expectations remained stable compared to the previous survey. The median projection of annual headline inflation for Y/E 2025 stood at 3.83%, compared to the previous survey of 3.80%, while core inflation stood at 3.70% (unchanged compared to the previous survey). The median estimate for the average annual inflation rate in 2026-2030 was unchanged at 3.70%.&nbsp;Exchange rate estimate for 2024 was adjusted upwards. The median projection for the exchange rate by Y/E 2024 was revised upwards to 20.23 USDMXN from 20.00 in the previous survey. For Y/E 2025, the consensus estimate remained unchanged at 20.50, relative to the previous survey.&nbsp;Slightly better GDP growth projections for 2024 and 2025. For 2024, the consensus anticipates GDP growth at 1.6% (previously at 1.5%), while for next year it is estimated at 1.2% (compared to the previous survey of 1.0%).&nbsp;This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

Existing Citi Research clients can also access the survey <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/t/eppublic/3ScqL">here</a>.<o:p></o:p>

Mexico Economics

Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Dec 5, 2024)

Download the full survey results here in <a href="https://ir.citi.com/mn60jqaGx7AoNgEytCXauZLg548On1vL5CqL_TFJDZI4o3YCTURP0f7p4BHsJdBUHdFs1BtbftMFRcANC-UozB4Gb3CGA5wDgsVgXm4K9SJSrEJT2V9Whvj8rCKHUcAS" target="_blank">English</a> and <a href="https://ir.citi.com/Mns6tEAYhbI4Qg5q4MHmgL3rnE2jbuZ_AA5vFkh3NgzJUqkqdyFkoQIG1847YiiVRkZra4zZ7H349Gs1mW3FaTagbqOwPRqksnhrQ-9GPh9zMuefKY4eJixU60x4mL5m" target="_blank">Spanish</a>.&nbsp;

All respondents project a rate cut in December’s monetary policy decision. The consensus estimates that Banxico’s next move to the interest rate will be a 25-bp decrease in December. Of the 31 participants, 25 project a 25-bp reduction, while 6 respondents, a 50-bp rate cut. The median of the estimates for the interest rate by Y/E 2024 remained at 10.00%. For the end of 2025, the median of expectations increased to 8.50% (previously at 8.00%), with a range from 7.50% to 9.00%.<o:p></o:p>For the first half of December, the consensus forecasts for headline and core inflation are at 0.39% and 0.47% bw/bw, respectively.&nbsp; For the full month of December, analysts’ consensus sees headline and core inflation at 0.50% MoM and 0.45%, respectively. As a result, 2024 annual headline and core inflation would stand at 4.33% (from 4.38% in the previous survey) and 3.60% (practically unchanged from the previous survey), respectively.<o:p></o:p>For Y/E 2025, the median headline inflation expectation increased slightly. The median projection of annual headline inflation for Y/E 2025 increased to 3.90% (previously at 3.83%), while core inflation stood at 3.70% (unchanged compared to the previous survey). The median estimate for the average annual inflation rate in 2026-2030 was unchanged at 3.70%.<o:p></o:p>Exchange rate median estimate for 2025 was adjusted upwards. The median projection for the exchange rate by Y/E 2024 stood at 20.25 USDMXN (practically unchanged from the previous survey). For Y/E 2025, the consensus estimate increased to 21.00 (from 20.50 in the previous survey).<o:p></o:p>Stable GDP growth projections for 2024 and 2025. For 2024 and 2025, the consensus anticipates GDP growth at 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, both unchanged compared to the previous survey.<o:p></o:p>This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.<o:p></o:p>

Existing Citi Research clients can also access the survey <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/t/eppublic/3Towo">here</a>.<o:p></o:p>

Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Dec 18, 2024)

Download the full survey results here in <a href="https://ir.citi.com/y7OI8qJCqfzxmwG12CvtwASVbjBifnqouaVCfJEUZ0r8hEHI7i1P-cRrL1ACTmXNLqRsPRq5r9LO8099AOCHiRX0n66jlIoYffM658xS51kksU-BHdD3XA%3D%3D" target="_blank">English</a> and <a href="https://ir.citi.com/4PssngqEHJN7cG6w8JHf4WIUfPjSzz1l2vJhT8GU9o7zvlsr22AjiM2u2-lzfUdyGl4zzrKzzgMS0bCFGCrJ-g6F1ry7SYyJg86qs8QYQ2Zk-91_0GLUg2RkxCBlrpv4" target="_blank">Spanish</a>.&nbsp;<o:p></o:p><o:p></o:p>

The next rate cut is expected by February; consensus estimates the policy rate by Y/E 2025 and 2026 at 8.50% and 7.50%, respectively. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is for a 25bp cut in February 2025. From the 32 respondents, 30 expect the next cut in February meeting while 2 participants expect it in March. From 31 respondents, 23 expect the next cut will be a 25bp cut while 8 participants expect it a 50bp cut. The median forecast for the rate by Y/E 2025 remained unchanged at 8.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.25% to 9.0%. For Y/E 2025, the median expectation is at 7.50%, with estimates ranging from 5.25% to 8.75%.<o:p></o:p>Slightly stronger peso expectations for 2025. The consensus now expects the USDMXN at 20.95 by Y/E 2025, lower than the 21.00 estimate in our previous survey. For Y/E 2026, consensus expects the USDMXN at 21.48.<o:p></o:p>The consensus projects headline and core inflation at 4.3% and 3.6%YoY, respectively for Y/E 2024. Survey participants forecast a 0.43%MoM CPI increase in December, lower than the previous survey (0.50%). Core inflation is estimated at 0.50%MoM in December, higher than the last survey (0.45%). For January 2025, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.51%MoM, and core inflation at 0.35%MoM.<o:p></o:p>Expectations for Y/E 2025 headline inflation increased at the margin. Headline inflation projections for Y/E 2025 increased at the margin: 3.90% from a fortnight ago to 3.91%, and for the core component they increased to 3.71%. For Y/E 2026, headline and core inflation expectations were at 3.80% and 3.61%, respectively. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2026-2030 was at 3.71%, practically unchanged from the previous survey.<o:p></o:p>Stable GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and weaker for 2025. The consensus continues to project GDP growth at 1.6% in 2024, the same as a fortnight ago. For 2025, the median GDP growth projection rose slightly to 1.0% from 1.2% two weeks ago, with the range of estimations going from 0.2% to 2.0%. Finally, for 2026, survey respondents expect GDP growth at 1.8%.<o:p></o:p>This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. © 2025 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.<o:p></o:p>

Existing Citi Research clients can also access the survey <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/t/eppublic/3UlvA">here</a>.<o:p></o:p>

Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Jan 7, 2025)

Download the full survey results here in <a href="https://ir.citi.com/kcQV1yVctJc9dZFEJ-S3l4ivRDPETwrsCJ0QM3eGjj0RMiSaFJxuvFK-vhWPSJGnk6_NCsG6ENemZkReSA_HCed6TIhxAReO56-flRRP-IXmUbgfkzhCYw%3D%3D " target="_blank">English</a> and <a href="https://ir.citi.com/4E-qAA2laboxIPwgAP3Hu7AxAQRvuIhBBtMWfT0iALh8_KXdqIl4c3JHHQ-XqQKx9cXYXpWqz-TCeP9qZHa9ttwtP41SnPtmMc8W4PrMp9nFJbkDPc6DDrHozE0Zwbu-" target="_blank">Spanish</a>.&nbsp;

Next rate cut still expected in February; consensus see the policy rate by Y/E 2025 at 8.50%. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next movement in the monetary policy rate remains a 25bp cut in February 2025 (unchanged from the last survey). Of the 30 respondents, 17 expect the next cut will be of 25bps, while 13 participants expect it of 50bps.&nbsp; The median forecast for Y/E 2025 remained unchanged at 8.50%, with estimates ranging from 7.50% to 9.00%. For Y/E 2026, the median projection remained at 7.50%, with estimates ranging from 6.00% to 8.75%.<o:p></o:p>Peso expectations remained unchanged for 2025 and 2026. The consensus now expects the USDMXN at 20.95 by Y/E 2025, same estimate as our previous survey. For Y/E 2026, the consensus projects the USDMXN at 21.49, from 21.48 a fortnight ago.<o:p></o:p>For 1H January, the consensus forecasts headline inflation at 0.27%bw. For core prices, analysts project growth of 0.23%bw. For the full month of January, analysts estimate headline inflation at 0.42%MoM (compared to 0.51% in the previous survey), while for core inflation, survey respondents expect an increase of 0.37%MoM, marginally higher than the 0.35% figure observed the previous survey.<o:p></o:p>Slightly lower inflation expectations for Y/E 2025 and 2026. Headline inflation projections for Y/E 2025 were unchanged from a fortnight ago, at 3.91%, and for the core component declined slightly to 3.68% from 3.71% in the last survey. For Y/E 2026, headline and core inflation expectations were at 3.77% and 3.60%, respectively, below from the projections of 3.80% and 3.61% in the previous survey. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027-2031 stood at 3.70%.<o:p></o:p>GDP growth forecasts remain unchanged for 2025 and 2026 but decrease for 2024. The consensus continues to project 2025 and 2026 GDP growth at 1.0% and 1.8%, respectively. For 2025, the estimates range from 0.2% to 1.8%. For 2024, the consensus now expects a GDP growth of 1.5%, from 1.6% in our previous survey.<o:p></o:p>This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. © 2025 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.<o:p></o:p>

Existing Citi Research clients can also access the survey <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/t/eppublic/3WL8z">here</a>.<o:p></o:p>

Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Jan 21, 2025)

Download the full survey results here in <a href="https://ir.citi.com/Yq4VBAOZXbqlV6z1cutnOk4wduFs_4k9gb9ikWx_m0-7BO7H_OWskY6neHe0_p8G-nciOUMJ6sKn-MW7F0YcMsXsxs5J7aKt4BMp8xHRiG_SMmgQE4ElCw%3D%3D" target="_blank">English</a> and <a href="https://ir.citi.com/9fIfYidN8AMlvzAui4S9MuerUnxh0c41d0cvIylSJKO3AWVyM4owDMeqKtaEBLE0cnDrKBM5MabmZJWcczugA-bVZRbjwtC8Bi33FxcKWBkngmlJ9OAdLQ%3D%3D" target="_blank">Spanish</a>.&nbsp;

Consensus now expects a 50bps rate cut in tomorrow Banxico meeting, with a projection for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 at 8.50%. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is now a 50bps rate cut in February 2025 (25bps higher from the last survey). Of the 35 respondents, 27 expect a 50bps cut in tomorrow’s meeting, while 8 participants expect a 25bps cut. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 remains unchanged at 8.50% compared to the previous survey, with estimates ranging from 7.00% to 9.0%. For Y/E 2026 the median expectation remained unchanged at 7.50% from a fortnight ago.<o:p></o:p>A slightly depreciated peso for 2025, at the margin. The consensus now projects the USDMXN at 21.00 by Y/E 2025, higher from 20.95 in the previous survey. For Y/E 2026, the median expectation of the USDMXN decreased to 21.30 from 21.49 a fortnight ago.<o:p></o:p>The consensus projects YoY headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively for January. Survey participants forecast a 0.33%MoM CPI increase in January 2025, or 3.63%YoY, lower than December 2024 rate of 4.21%. Core inflation is estimated at 0.44%MoM in January, or 3.69%YoY, slightly higher than the figure for the previous month of 3.65%. For February 2025, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.35%MoM, and core inflation at 0.42%MoM.<o:p></o:p>Core inflation expectations increased for Y/E 2025. Headline inflation projections for Y/E 2025 decreased marginally to 3.90% from 3.91% a fortnight ago, and for the core component the median increased to 3.74% from 3.68% in the previous survey. For Y/E 2026, headline inflation expectations decreased to 3.72% from 3.77% previously, while core inflation estimations remained broadly stable at 3.60%. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027-2031 remains unchanged from the previous survey at 3.70%.<o:p></o:p>GDP growth forecasts remained unchanged for 2025 at 1.0%. The consensus continues to project 2025 GDP growth at 1.0%, the same as our last three surveys, with forecasts ranging from 0.2% to 1.7%. For 2026, the median GDP growth projection remains at 1.80%.<o:p></o:p>This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. © 2025 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.<o:p></o:p><o:p></o:p>

Existing Citi Research clients can also access the survey <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/t/eppublic/3Xyjq">here</a>.<o:p></o:p>

Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Feb 5, 2025)

Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Feb 20, 2025)

Results and observations from our biweekly survey of Mexico-based economists for expectations on inflation, GDP, interest rates, and foreign exchange.<o:p></o:p>

Citi Mexico Expectations Survey

Survey (English)

Survey (Spanish)

Download the full survey results here in <a href="https://ir.citi.com/9OElyGMlp3X24joDHsp7Z8NjQuz7Io-SiYKl8HcvlI9jdLXZvCAn7wemThMb9_JYNIvunPtbNeNYvs7AKZg8jlxYQSaz7c-ek0He4pd3dj713ANTzX-A-A%3D%3D" target="_blank">English</a> and <a href="https://ir.citi.com/urPZEMReqLPyxKkF32puUWSCfZjZsra8MuGf8eVKYSAW02FkjE16y72YKYhwo8MfnXilUzGXcwvl1wfXQ4EVh74SaVTD6raGfZMuECIxa7V2uuKcVXb-dw%3D%3D" target="_blank">Spanish</a>.&nbsp;

The next rate cut is expected for March, with a lower Y/E 2025 policy rate of 8.25%. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is a 50bps rate cut in March 2025. Of the 33 respondents, 3 expect a 25bps cut in the next meeting. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 stood at 8.25%, 25bps lower than in the previous survey, with estimates ranging from 8.75% to 7.00%. For Y/E 2026 the median expectation remained unchanged at 7.50%. Stable peso expectations for 2025 and a more depreciated currency for 2026. The consensus kept the USDMXN at 21.00 for Y/E 2025 and for Y/E 2026, it increased to 21.50 from 21.30 in the previous survey. For the full month of February 2025, analysts estimate headline inflation at 3.8%YoY. The February consensus sees headline monthly inflation at 0.31%MoM, or 3.81%YoY, higher than the 3.59% rate recorded in January. For core prices, survey respondents expect an increase of 0.42%MoM, or 3.58%YoY, below the 3.66% figure observed in the previous month. For 1H February 2025, the consensus forecasts headline inflation at 0.17%bw. For core prices, analysts project a 0.25%bw growth. Headline inflation expectations decreased for Y/E 2025 and increased for Y/E 2026. Headline inflation projections for Y/E 2025 went down to 3.83% from 3.90% a fortnight ago, while for the core component was reduced to 3.70% from 3.74% in the previous survey. For Y/E 2026, headline expectations increased to 3.79% from 3.72% previously, while core inflation estimations also increased marginally to 3.61% from 3.60%. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027-2031 remained unchanged from the previous survey at 3.70%. GDP growth forecasts was lowered for 2025 to 0.9%. The consensus now projects a 2025 GDP growth of 0.9%, lower than the 1.0% in the three previous surveys. For 2026, the median GDP growth expectation remains at 1.8%. This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. © 2025 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

Existing Citi Research clients can also access the survey <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/t/eppublic/3aLnW" target="_blank">here</a>.

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