Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (April 22, 2025)

Consensus continues to expect another 50bps rate cut in the May meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, 34 participants expect that the next move in the monetary policy rate is a 50bp rate cut in May 2025, reaching a 8.50% level, while two participants expect a 25bps cut. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 was reduced to 7.75%, 25bps lower than the previous survey, with estimates ranging from 6.25% to 8.25%. For Y/E 2026 the policy rate median expectation was kept at 7.00%, relative to the previous survey.

Peso expectations remained stable. The consensus projects the USDMXN at 20.93 for Y/E 2025, slightly higher than 20.90 in the previous survey. For Y/E 2026, it is at 21.20, 10 cents lower than the previous survey.

For 1H April, the consensus projects biweekly headline and core inflation at 0.03% and 0.23%, respectively. For the full month of April, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.18%MoM, or 3.77%YoY, lower than March’s rate of 3.80%. Core inflation is estimated at 0.36%MoM in April, or 3.79%YoY, higher than the figure from the previous month of 3.64%.

Inflation expectations remained stable for Y/E 2025 and 2026. Headline inflation projections for Y/E 2025 was kept at 3.78% from a fortnight ago, while for the core component, it rose slightly to 3.80% from 3.76% in the previous survey. For Y/E 2026, headline median expectation is at 3.79%, higher than the last survey at 3.78%, while core inflation median estimation was kept at 3.70% from a fortnight ago. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027- 2031 remained unchanged from the previous survey at 3.70%.

GDP growth median forecast declined again for 2025. The consensus now estimates 2025 GDP growth at 0.2%, lower than the 0.3% in the last survey, with estimations ranging from -0.7% to 0.8%. This is the fifth consecutive survey that consensus downgrades GDP expectation for 2025. For 2026, it was kept at 1.5%, relative to the previous survey.  

This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. © 2025 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.