Global Markets and Economy

We explore the implications of now-paused U.S. tariffs for global trade and what may lie ahead, highlighting potential impacts on the European Union and the emerging markets that make up “Factory Asia.”

Markets are looking for evidence of tariff talk and/or some sort of Fed put, but so far there's nothing concrete. We look beyond China to consider negotiation possibilities, from potentially quick deals to tougher cases.

The U.S. tariffs under President Trump have reached their highest levels in roughly a century, drawing comparisons with the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. But today’s economy and geopolitical fabric provide a starkly different backdrop — where central banks play a key role, where the Fed in particular must navigate a tricky path between potentially higher inflation and slower growth, and where escalating trade friction with China looms large. Join host Rob Rowe and Chief Economist Nathan Sheets as they discuss the still-developing tariff structures and their implications for the United States itself as well as its trading partners.

Pausing reciprocal tariffs excluding China doesn't mean the U.S. economy has avoided slower growth and higher inflation, as the average U.S. effective tariff rate remains about 21 percentage points above its level at the start of 2025. Uncertainty will persist; we still expect a Fed cut in May or June.

The escalating trade conflict looms as a negative demand shock for euro-area exports and potentially an even bigger positive supply shock from trade redirection.

With U.S. tariffs raised to the highest level in more than a century, we consider their implications for the U.S. and global economies. Our analysis addresses the nature of the shock, potential effects on growth, and the challenge for U.S. monetary policy, while spotlighting key questions that remain unanswered.

The U.S. tariffs are exerting an immediate impact on the financial markets, but they also have long-term consequences for economies — including a fundamental challenge to Europe’s longstanding export-led growth model.

This in-depth Citi Research report explores the future of the ETF industry, analyzing key trends such as product rationalization and looking at the changing ETF product landscape. Discover what could drive the next $10 trillion in growth and how investors can navigate this evolving market.