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Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (March 5, 2025)

Mexico Economics
Citi Mexico Expectations Survey  •  Article  •  March 05, 2025  •  Contributors
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Consensus continues see the next rate cut in March meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is a 50bp cut in March 2025, unchanged from the last survey. Of the 38 respondents, 36 project a 50bp cut while two participants expect a 25bp cut. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 remained unchanged at 8.25%, with estimates ranging from 7.50% to 8.75%. For Y/E 2026 the median expectation continued at 7.50%.

Broadly stable peso expectations. The consensus keeps projecting the USDMXN at 21.00 for Y/E 2025, the same as in our two previous surveys. For Y/E 2026, it continues to be at 21.50.

The consensus projects YoY headline and core inflation at 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively for February. Survey participants forecast a 0.27%MoM increase for the CPI in February, or 3.77%YoY, higher than January’s rate of 3.59%. Core inflation is estimated at 0.45%MoM in February, or 3.62%YoY, lower than the figure for the previous month of 3.66%. For March, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.35%MoM, and core inflation at 0.39%MoM.

Headline inflation expectations decline for Y/E 2025 and 2026. Headline inflation projections for Y/E 2025 decreased to 3.77% from 3.83% a fortnight ago, while for the core component, they remained broadly unchanged at 3.71% from 3.70% in the previous survey. For Y/E 2026, headline expectations also declined to 3.70% from 3.79% in the last survey, while core inflation estimations also were unchanged at 3.61 %. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027-2031 keeps the same from the previous survey at 3.71%.

GDP growth forecasts declined for 2025 to 0.8%. The consensus now estimates 2025 GDP growth at 0.8%, lower than the 0.9% in the last survey. For 2026, it remains at 1.8%, the same rate than in the last four surveys. 

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