Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (March 5, 2025)

Consensus continues see the next rate cut in March meeting. In today’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey, the median estimate for the next move in the monetary policy rate is a 50bp cut in March 2025, unchanged from the last survey. Of the 38 respondents, 36 project a 50bp cut while two participants expect a 25bp cut. The median forecast for the policy rate by Y/E 2025 remained unchanged at 8.25%, with estimates ranging from 7.50% to 8.75%. For Y/E 2026 the median expectation continued at 7.50%.

Broadly stable peso expectations. The consensus keeps projecting the USDMXN at 21.00 for Y/E 2025, the same as in our two previous surveys. For Y/E 2026, it continues to be at 21.50.

The consensus projects YoY headline and core inflation at 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively for February. Survey participants forecast a 0.27%MoM increase for the CPI in February, or 3.77%YoY, higher than January’s rate of 3.59%. Core inflation is estimated at 0.45%MoM in February, or 3.62%YoY, lower than the figure for the previous month of 3.66%. For March, analysts expect headline inflation at 0.35%MoM, and core inflation at 0.39%MoM.

Headline inflation expectations decline for Y/E 2025 and 2026. Headline inflation projections for Y/E 2025 decreased to 3.77% from 3.83% a fortnight ago, while for the core component, they remained broadly unchanged at 3.71% from 3.70% in the previous survey. For Y/E 2026, headline expectations also declined to 3.70% from 3.79% in the last survey, while core inflation estimations also were unchanged at 3.61 %. The median expectation for the average annual inflation rate in 2027-2031 keeps the same from the previous survey at 3.71%.

GDP growth forecasts declined for 2025 to 0.8%. The consensus now estimates 2025 GDP growth at 0.8%, lower than the 0.9% in the last survey. For 2026, it remains at 1.8%, the same rate than in the last four surveys. 

This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. © 2025 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.