Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (Dec 18, 2024)

All respondents project a rate cut in December’s monetary policy decision. The consensus estimates that Banxico’s next move to the interest rate will be a 25-bp decrease in December. Of the 31 participants, 25 project a 25-bp reduction, while 6 respondents, a 50-bp rate cut. The median of the estimates for the interest rate by Y/E 2024 remained at 10.00%. For the end of 2025, the median of expectations increased to 8.50% (previously at 8.00%), with a range from 7.50% to 9.00%.

For the first half of December, the consensus forecasts for headline and core inflation are at 0.39% and 0.47% bw/bw, respectively.  For the full month of December, analysts’ consensus sees headline and core inflation at 0.50% MoM and 0.45%, respectively. As a result, 2024 annual headline and core inflation would stand at 4.33% (from 4.38% in the previous survey) and 3.60% (practically unchanged from the previous survey), respectively.

For Y/E 2025, the median headline inflation expectation increased slightly. The median projection of annual headline inflation for Y/E 2025 increased to 3.90% (previously at 3.83%), while core inflation stood at 3.70% (unchanged compared to the previous survey). The median estimate for the average annual inflation rate in 2026-2030 was unchanged at 3.70%.

Exchange rate median estimate for 2025 was adjusted upwards. The median projection for the exchange rate by Y/E 2024 stood at 20.25 USDMXN (practically unchanged from the previous survey). For Y/E 2025, the consensus estimate increased to 21.00 (from 20.50 in the previous survey).

Stable GDP growth projections for 2024 and 2025. For 2024 and 2025, the consensus anticipates GDP growth at 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, both unchanged compared to the previous survey.

This survey contains thematic content and is not investment research, nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This survey is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this survey are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this survey is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.