The U.S. Elections – Buckling Up for Volatility

The U.S. general elections on November 5 will feature competitive races for control of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. A Biden–Trump rematch looks likely, despite low national support for both candidates. “Double-hating” Biden–Trump voters in six swing states will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome. What happens at the top of the ticket will largely determine down-ballot races for the House and Senate. This leaves the closely divided House a toss-up and gives Republicans an early advantage in the Senate cycle.

The following are some of the major takeaways from our Must C report:

• President Biden and former President Trump are the frontrunners for their parties’ nominations. A majority of pledged delegates will be allocated by mid-March, meaning the window is closing fast for primary voters to choose someone else in either party. As soon as late March or early April, the frontrunners could receive a majority of pledged delegates to become their presumptive party nominees. Barring an unexpected development, Biden and Trump are heading for a rematch. The election calendar also coincides with the legal calendar for Trump’s four criminal cases. Trials are expected to last at least two to three months and are unlikely to occur concurrently; no trial will finish before Trump becomes the presumptive nominee.

• Should either candidate withdraw from the race, how a new nominee is chosen and by whom depends on timing. If that happens before the party convention, a nominee will be chosen based on who can receive a majority of primary delegates, with a competition for delegates if no candidate reaches a majority. If a candidate withdraws before ballots are printed, either the Democratic National Committee (DNC) or Republican National Committee (RNC) will choose a replacement based on party rules. If ballots have been printed but it’s before Election Day, the DNC or RNC will choose a replacement but the candidates will remain on the ballots, with Biden or Trump electors told to vote for the replacement during the Electoral College count. If it’s after Election Day but before the Electoral College count, it will be up to electors to choose, with the decision going to the House if no candidate receives a majority of the Electoral College. Finally, if such an event happens after the Electoral College count but before the inauguration, the Vice President-elect will become President.

• The election will come down to tens of thousands of voters in six states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Today Trump appears to be the favorite, as he’s leading in an aggregate of polls nationally and in five of the six swing states. But Election Day is more than eight months away.

• Biden’s unfavorable rating is 58%, while Trump’s is 57%, with 16% of voters disliking both candidates. One of the most important questions for 2024 is what these “double-hating” voters will do: fall in line, vote for a third-party candidate, or stay home. 

• The close presidential race leaves control of the House too close to call; there’s a good chance whichever party wins the White House also wins the House. Meanwhile, Republicans hold a geographic advantage in the Senate; there, Democrats’ best possible outcome is a 50–50 split Senate, with the Vice President as the tie-breaking majority. A final factor of note is candidate quality: Republicans have lost several winnable House and Senate races in the past by nominating controversial candidates.