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In the Citi GPS Disruptive Innovation series, we have highlighted amazing new advancements in healthcare over the years — from immunotherapy, and CRISPR-based gene editing to virtual care and blood tests for cancer. One healthcare area notably absent from the innovation series is antibiotics. In the U.S., 251.1 million antibiotic prescriptions were written in 2019, making it the second most prescribed drug category behind cholesterol reducers. But half of the antibiotics commonly used today were discovered in the 1950s, and the last antibiotic class successfully introduced as treatment was discovered in 1987. Why is this an issue? Because bacteria are increasingly becoming resistant to today’s antibiotics. In 2019, 4.95 million deaths were associated with bacterial drug resistance, with 1.27 million deaths directly attributed to it. If the issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is not addressed, it could lead to 10 million deaths by 2050. The drivers of AMR include overuse and misuse of antibiotics in humans and animals, poor hygiene and sanitation, and a lack of research and innovation to develop novel antimicrobials. At the same time, climate change is exacerbating many health challenges. Rising temperatures have increased the frequency and intensity of outbreaks of some diseases, as well as their geographical scope. Extreme weather can also increase the burden of infectious disease. Flooding leads to increased agricultural run-off as well as sewage contamination, which both increase the risk of disease spread. And as extreme weather increases, populations become displaced as homes become uninhabitable and access to potable water is threatened. The report that follows looks at interventions that could avert the worst outcomes, and although AMR is a significant problem, many solutions are within reach. However, these solutions require the collaboration of a broad range of stakeholders, including the public and private sectors as well as civil society. The first step in addressing AMR is reducing the burden of infectious disease. This can be done through improving sanitation and developing vaccines to prevent infections in both humans and animals. The second is reducing the use of antimicrobials in humans and animals by raising awareness on AMR, reducing unnecessary antimicrobials in food production, and developing rapid diagnostics. Facilitating innovation with investment in early-stage research and drug discovery will help in the quest for new novel antimicrobials. Finally, implementing steps to curtail the spread of resistance, such as strengthening global surveillance of drug resistance and improving treatment of wastewater with attention to antimicrobials. Most importantly, the report calls for tackling AMR with the same effort as climate change. We view AMR, climate change, and biodiversity loss as closely related; this aligns with a “One Health” approach, which recognizes that animal, human, and environmental health should be considered holistically. Based on discussions with experts throughout the report, policymaking appears to be the single most effective starting point in tackling AMR. The report summarizes their views and provides key recommendations for policymakers.Authors: Anita McBain,Amy Thompson,Andrew Baum, MD,Veronika Dubajova,Georgina Smartt,Makanjuola Senbanjo,

<h3 class="">In the Citi GPS <a href="https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/citigps/disruptive-innovation-2" data-link-source="tiny">Disruptive Innovation</a> series, we have highlighted amazing new advancements in healthcare over the years &mdash; from immunotherapy, and CRISPR-based gene editing to virtual care and blood tests for cancer. One healthcare area notably absent from the innovation series is antibiotics. In the U.S., 251.1 million antibiotic prescriptions were written in 2019, making it the second most prescribed drug category behind cholesterol reducers. But half of the antibiotics commonly used today were discovered in the 1950s, and the last antibiotic class successfully introduced as treatment was discovered in 1987.</h3>
 Why is this an issue? Because bacteria are increasingly becoming resistant to today&rsquo;s antibiotics. In 2019, 4.95 million deaths were associated with bacterial drug resistance, with 1.27 million deaths directly attributed to it. If the issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is not addressed, it could lead to 10 million deaths by 2050. The drivers of AMR include overuse and misuse of antibiotics in humans and animals, poor hygiene and sanitation, and a lack of research and innovation to develop novel antimicrobials. At the same time, climate change is exacerbating many health challenges. Rising temperatures have increased the frequency and intensity of outbreaks of some diseases, as well as their geographical scope. Extreme weather can also increase the burden of infectious disease. Flooding leads to increased agricultural run-off as well as sewage contamination, which both increase the risk of disease spread. And as extreme weather increases, populations become displaced as homes become uninhabitable and access to potable water is threatened. The report that follows looks at interventions that could avert the worst outcomes, and although AMR is a significant problem, many solutions are within reach. However, these solutions require the collaboration of a broad range of stakeholders, including the public and private sectors as well as civil society. The first step in addressing AMR is reducing the burden of infectious disease. This can be done through improving sanitation and developing vaccines to prevent infections in both humans and animals. The second is reducing the use of antimicrobials in humans and animals by raising awareness on AMR, reducing unnecessary antimicrobials in food production, and developing rapid diagnostics. Facilitating innovation with investment in early-stage research and drug discovery will help in the quest for new novel antimicrobials. Finally, implementing steps to curtail the spread of resistance, such as strengthening global surveillance of drug resistance and improving treatment of wastewater with attention to antimicrobials. Most importantly, the report calls for tackling AMR with the same effort as climate change. We view AMR, climate change, and biodiversity loss as closely related; this aligns with a &ldquo;One Health&rdquo; approach, which recognizes that animal, human, and environmental health should be considered holistically. &nbsp; Based on discussions with experts throughout the report, policymaking appears to be the single most effective starting point in tackling AMR. The report summarizes their views and provides key recommendations for policymakers.Authors: Anita McBain,Amy Thompson,Andrew Baum, MD,Veronika Dubajova,Georgina Smartt,Makanjuola Senbanjo,

Why is Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Important? If we fail to protect the current suite of antibiotics and invest in research and development into new antibiotics, we could find ourselves in a scenario where most, if not all, antibiotics no longer work. This would limit our ability to treat common infections. In 2019, an estimated 1.27 million deaths globally were directly attributed to AMR and by 2050 up to 10 million may die from AMR-related illnesses.

If we fail to protect the current suite of antibiotics and invest in research and development into new antibiotics, we could find ourselves in a scenario where most, if not all, antibiotics no longer work. This would limit our ability to treat common infections. In 2019, an estimated 1.27 million deaths globally were directly attributed to AMR and by 2050 up to 10 million may die from AMR-related illnesses.

Why is Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Important?

Drivers of Antimicrobial Resistance

Consequences of Antimicrobial Resistance Using two scenarios corresponding to low and high AMR impacts, World Bank simulations have quantified the potential economic losses from AMR globally between 2017 and 2050.

Using two scenarios corresponding to low and high AMR impacts, World Bank simulations have quantified the potential economic losses from AMR globally between 2017 and 2050.

Consequences of Antimicrobial Resistance

Actions to Prevent Antimicrobial Resistance 

In the Citi GPS Disruptive Innovation series, we have highlighted amazing new advancements in healthcare over the years — from immunotherapy, and CRISPR-based gene editing to virtual care and blood tests for cancer. One healthcare area notably absent from the innovation series is antibiotics. In the U.S., 251.1 million antibiotic prescriptions were written in 2019, making it the second most prescribed drug category behind cholesterol reducers. But half of the antibiotics commonly used today were discovered in the 1950s, and the last antibiotic class successfully introduced as treatment was discovered in 1987. Why is this an issue? Because bacteria are increasingly becoming resistant to today’s antibiotics. In 2019, 4.95 million deaths were associated with bacterial drug resistance, with 1.27 million deaths directly attributed to it. If the issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is not addressed, it could lead to 10 million deaths by 2050. The drivers of AMR include overuse and misuse of antibiotics in humans and animals, poor hygiene and sanitation, and a lack of research and innovation to develop novel antimicrobials. At the same time, climate change is exacerbating many health challenges. Rising temperatures have increased the frequency and intensity of outbreaks of some diseases, as well as their geographical scope. Extreme weather can also increase the burden of infectious disease. Flooding leads to increased agricultural run-off as well as sewage contamination, which both increase the risk of disease spread. And as extreme weather increases, populations become displaced as homes become uninhabitable and access to potable water is threatened. The report that follows looks at interventions that could avert the worst outcomes, and although AMR is a significant problem, many solutions are within reach. However, these solutions require the collaboration of a broad range of stakeholders, including the public and private sectors as well as civil society. The first step in addressing AMR is reducing the burden of infectious disease. This can be done through improving sanitation and developing vaccines to prevent infections in both humans and animals. The second is reducing the use of antimicrobials in humans and animals by raising awareness on AMR, reducing unnecessary antimicrobials in food production, and developing rapid diagnostics. Facilitating innovation with investment in early-stage research and drug discovery will help in the quest for new novel antimicrobials. Finally, implementing steps to curtail the spread of resistance, such as strengthening global surveillance of drug resistance and improving treatment of wastewater with attention to antimicrobials. Most importantly, the report calls for tackling AMR with the same effort as climate change. We view AMR, climate change, and biodiversity loss as closely related; this aligns with a “One Health” approach, which recognizes that animal, human, and environmental health should be considered holistically. Based on discussions with experts throughout the report, policymaking appears to be the single most effective starting point in tackling AMR. The report summarizes their views and provides key recommendations for policymakers.Authors: Anita McBain,Amy Thompson,Andrew Baum, MD,Veronika Dubajova,Georgina Smartt,Makanjuola Senbanjo, Why is Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Important? If we fail to protect the current suite of antibiotics and invest in research and development into new antibiotics, we could find ourselves in a scenario where most, if not all, antibiotics no longer work. This would limit our ability to treat common infections. In 2019, an estimated 1.27 million deaths globally were directly attributed to AMR and by 2050 up to 10 million may die from AMR-related illnesses. Drivers of Antimicrobial Resistance Consequences of Antimicrobial Resistance Using two scenarios corresponding to low and high AMR impacts, World Bank simulations have quantified the potential economic losses from AMR globally between 2017 and 2050. Actions to Prevent Antimicrobial Resistance

The Silent Pandemic

In the Citi GPS Disruptive Innovation series, we have highlighted amazing new advancements in healthcare over the years — from immunotherapy, and CRISPR-based gene editing to virtual care and blood tests for cancer. One healthcare area notably absent from the innovation series is antibiotics. In the U.S., 251.1 million antibiotic prescriptions were written in 2019, making it the second most prescribed drug category behind cholesterol reducers. But half of the antibiotics commonly used today were discovered in the 1950s, and the last antibiotic class successfully introduced as treatment was discovered in 1987.

Antimicrobial Resistance 

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Technology advances seem to be dominating the headlines. There are new ways to search the web using artificial intelligence and machine learning, alternate payment systems using blockchain and digital currency, and innovative ways to socialize gaming, and shop using the metaverse. In most cases, the advances have been facilitated by increasing computing speeds that enable faster calculations as well as better connectivity, but all are based on existing computing technology. But that is all about to change. The next phase of computing — quantum computing — is getting closer to becoming practically useful as we are quickly coming to a point where quantum computers will be able to perform valuable tasks faster, more efficiently, or cheaper than classical computers. Quantum computing breaks away from traditional classical computing using quantum mechanics as a base. If you made it through physics class in high school or college, you might remember that quantum mechanics as a daunting concept associated with geniuses like Albert Einstein, Niels Bohr, and Max Planck. But you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to start thinking about how quantum computing can revolutionize industry and society. And given the speed that quantum computing is progressing, we believe now is the time to for nation-states, corporates, and market participants to start getting ready for its arrival. In the report that follows, we look at what quantum computing is and what its advantages are compared with classical computing in terms of optimization, machine learning, simulation, and cryptography. We then apply those advantages to specific industries to highlight areas where quantum computing can materially advance processes from logistics and drug discovery to portfolio optimization and cybersecurity. Most importantly, we set out steps that nation-states and corporates can begin implementing in preparation for the arrival of quantum computing. Setting up appropriate funding to encourage research and development is important on a national scale, as is ensuring education and training to avoid a talent skills gap. Corporates should improve their awareness of how quantum computing will affect their industry, create impact assessments, and contextualize opportunities.

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Technology advances seem to be dominating the headlines. There are new ways to search the web using artificial intelligence and machine learning, alternate payment systems using blockchain and digital currency, and innovative ways to socialize gaming, and shop using the metaverse. In most cases, the advances have been facilitated by increasing computing speeds that enable faster calculations as well as better connectivity, but all are based on existing computing technology.&nbsp;
But that is all about to change. The next phase of computing &mdash; quantum computing &mdash; is getting closer to becoming practically useful as we are quickly coming to a point where quantum computers will be able to perform valuable tasks faster, more efficiently, or cheaper than classical computers. Quantum computing breaks away from traditional classical computing using quantum mechanics as a base. If you made it through physics class in high school or college, you might remember that quantum mechanics as a daunting concept associated with geniuses like Albert Einstein, Niels Bohr, and Max Planck. But you don&rsquo;t have to be a rocket scientist to start thinking about how quantum computing can revolutionize industry and society. And given the speed that quantum computing is progressing, we believe now is the time to for nation-states, corporates, and market participants to start getting ready for its arrival.
In the report that follows, we look at what quantum computing is and what its advantages are compared with classical computing in terms of optimization, machine learning, simulation, and cryptography. We then apply those advantages to specific industries to highlight areas where quantum computing can materially advance processes from logistics and drug discovery to portfolio optimization and cybersecurity.
Most importantly, we set out steps that nation-states and corporates can begin implementing in preparation for the arrival of quantum computing. Setting up appropriate funding to encourage research and development is important on a national scale, as is ensuring education and training to avoid a talent skills gap. Corporates should improve their awareness of how quantum computing will affect their industry, create impact assessments, and contextualize opportunities.

Why Quantum Computing Is a Big Deal Computing is at an inflection point. After five decades of increasing computational power by Moore's Law (i.e., doubling the number of transistors per chip every 2 years), the growth rate of classical computing is reaching its physical limit. At the same time, the capabilities of quantum computers (QCs) are advancing at a "doubly exponential" rate &mdash; in line with Neven's Law &mdash; and are close to generating commercial value.

Computing is at an inflection point. After five decades of increasing computational power by Moore's Law (i.e., doubling the number of transistors per chip every 2 years), the growth rate of classical computing is reaching its physical limit. At the same time, the capabilities of quantum computers (QCs) are advancing at a "doubly exponential" rate &mdash; in line with Neven's Law &mdash; and are close to generating commercial value.

Why Quantum Computing Is a Big Deal

How Big Could Quantum Computing Become? Total addressable market (TAM) estimates for quantum computing vary widely &mdash; ranging in 2027 from $700 million to $8.6 billion. Venture capital investment in the QC space has been strong but still pales in comparison to investment in artificial intelligence (AI).

Total addressable market (TAM) estimates for quantum computing vary widely &mdash; ranging in 2027 from $700 million to $8.6 billion. Venture capital investment in the QC space has been strong but still pales in comparison to investment in artificial intelligence (AI).

How Big Could Quantum Computing Become?

How Will Quantum Computing Disrupt Industry? Quantum computing will likely solve practical problems faster, cheaper, or more effectively than classical computers in four broad areas &mdash; optimization, machine learning, simulations, and cryptography. Three of these attributes offer significant upside for numerous industries, including Manufacturing &amp; Logistics, Artificial Intelligence, Healthcare, Energy &amp; Climate, and Finance. However, with cryptography, QCs post a potential threat to the cryptographic standards that underpin computer systems and cryptocurrencies.

Quantum computing will likely solve practical problems faster, cheaper, or more effectively than classical computers in four broad areas &mdash; optimization, machine learning, simulations, and cryptography. Three of these attributes offer significant upside for numerous industries, including Manufacturing &amp; Logistics, Artificial Intelligence, Healthcare, Energy &amp; Climate, and Finance. However, with cryptography, QCs post a potential threat to the cryptographic standards that underpin computer systems and cryptocurrencies.

How Will Quantum Computing Disrupt Industry?

Preparing for Quantum Due to the exponential scaling power of quantum computers, by the time they offer a practical advantage to business, the gap between early adopters and those using only classical computing will widen at an increasingly accelerated pace. Now it the time to prepare for the transition to capitalize on opportunities and safeguard against risk. To take advantage of the opportunity we suggest government and corporates should prepare in the following ways:

Due to the exponential scaling power of quantum computers, by the time they offer a practical advantage to business, the gap between early adopters and those using only classical computing will widen at an increasingly accelerated pace. Now it the time to prepare for the transition to capitalize on opportunities and safeguard against risk. To take advantage of the opportunity we suggest government and corporates should prepare in the following ways:

Preparing for Quantum

Technology advances seem to be dominating the headlines. There are new ways to search the web using artificial intelligence and machine learning, alternate payment systems using blockchain and digital currency, and innovative ways to socialize gaming, and shop using the metaverse. In most cases, the advances have been facilitated by increasing computing speeds that enable faster calculations as well as better connectivity, but all are based on existing computing technology. But that is all about to change. The next phase of computing — quantum computing — is getting closer to becoming practically useful as we are quickly coming to a point where quantum computers will be able to perform valuable tasks faster, more efficiently, or cheaper than classical computers. Quantum computing breaks away from traditional classical computing using quantum mechanics as a base. If you made it through physics class in high school or college, you might remember that quantum mechanics as a daunting concept associated with geniuses like Albert Einstein, Niels Bohr, and Max Planck. But you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to start thinking about how quantum computing can revolutionize industry and society. And given the speed that quantum computing is progressing, we believe now is the time to for nation-states, corporates, and market participants to start getting ready for its arrival. In the report that follows, we look at what quantum computing is and what its advantages are compared with classical computing in terms of optimization, machine learning, simulation, and cryptography. We then apply those advantages to specific industries to highlight areas where quantum computing can materially advance processes from logistics and drug discovery to portfolio optimization and cybersecurity. Most importantly, we set out steps that nation-states and corporates can begin implementing in preparation for the arrival of quantum computing. Setting up appropriate funding to encourage research and development is important on a national scale, as is ensuring education and training to avoid a talent skills gap. Corporates should improve their awareness of how quantum computing will affect their industry, create impact assessments, and contextualize opportunities. Why Quantum Computing Is a Big Deal Computing is at an inflection point. After five decades of increasing computational power by Moore's Law (i.e., doubling the number of transistors per chip every 2 years), the growth rate of classical computing is reaching its physical limit. At the same time, the capabilities of quantum computers (QCs) are advancing at a "doubly exponential" rate &mdash; in line with Neven's Law &mdash; and are close to generating commercial value. How Big Could Quantum Computing Become? Total addressable market (TAM) estimates for quantum computing vary widely &mdash; ranging in 2027 from $700 million to $8.6 billion. Venture capital investment in the QC space has been strong but still pales in comparison to investment in artificial intelligence (AI). How Will Quantum Computing Disrupt Industry? Quantum computing will likely solve practical problems faster, cheaper, or more effectively than classical computers in four broad areas &mdash; optimization, machine learning, simulations, and cryptography. Three of these attributes offer significant upside for numerous industries, including Manufacturing &amp; Logistics, Artificial Intelligence, Healthcare, Energy &amp; Climate, and Finance. However, with cryptography, QCs post a potential threat to the cryptographic standards that underpin computer systems and cryptocurrencies. Preparing for Quantum Due to the exponential scaling power of quantum computers, by the time they offer a practical advantage to business, the gap between early adopters and those using only classical computing will widen at an increasingly accelerated pace. Now it the time to prepare for the transition to capitalize on opportunities and safeguard against risk. To take advantage of the opportunity we suggest government and corporates should prepare in the following ways:

The newness and complexity of quantum computing is a challenge for stakeholders, but fostering awareness of what these machines can achieve could help with preparation and execution. The debate around the arrival of quantum advantage will continue, and it will appear at different times for different use cases. When it does, despite the upskilling and technology integration that will be necessary, quantum computing is likely to scale exponentially.


Moving Quickly From Theory to Reality

The newness and complexity of quantum computing is a challenge for stakeholders, but fostering awareness of what these machines can achieve could help with preparation and execution. The debate around the arrival of quantum advantage will continue, and it will appear at different times for different use cases. When it does, despite the upskilling and technology integration that will be necessary, quantum computing is likely to scale exponentially.

Quantum Computing 

Since the 1930s, hydrogen has run into application difficulties in implementing what has appeared, on the surface, to be its great allure: in theory, it is more abundant and more versatile than all other fuel sources outside of petroleum. Hydrogen can be — and has been — a transportation fuel; it makes up 2.5% of all energy consumed due to its critical use in refining as an upgrading ingredient to turn heavy products, like residual fuel oil, into light products, like gasoline and diesel; it can be a source of power generation and can be stored longer and more efficiently as a last resort replacement for interruptible renewables like wind, solar, and hydro than utility-scale batteries; and since it burns at high temperatures, it can be a clean replacement for coking coal. Obstacles surrounding its explosivity began to confront hydrogen with the Hindenburg disaster in 1937, which rapidly brought its promise as a light, clean fuel for zeppelin airships to an end. Despite this, it has been tamed as the principal fuel for rockets. Hydrogen now confronts scalability issues in creating electrolyzers, leakage issues when it comes to pipelines and storage, and cost hurdles along with “not-in-my-backyard” (NIMBY) obstacles. And the high cost of scalable projects has certainly slowed down the development of hydrogen projects globally. But signs of breakthroughs have emerged over the past few years. This partly stems from an overall acceleration in green technology investments, which Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) indicates reached $1.1 trillion with 30% financing growth in 2022. Although very little of that acceleration was in hydrogen, the beginning of 2023 brought the first large-scale global hydrogen financing with an $8.5 billion hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia. Between 2021 and 2022, the U.S. enacted a series of new laws, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which together with prior legislation and existing authorities are expected to provide as much as $1.7 trillion in investment incentives. A significant proportion of these incentives are for hydrogen projects, including via the support of hydrogen hubs around the country. The tax credits provided by the Inflation Reduction Act are so generous that net production costs of green hydrogen after adjusting for tax benefits could be negative later this decade. In response, Europe enacted its own Green Deal Industrial Plan, and government incentives are being offered in a growing list of countries already endowed with renewable resource potential and/or with the incentives to reach net zero, including Australia, Chile, China (the leading producer of hydrogen in the world), India, Japan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. It looks like it is time for hydrogen’s doubting Thomases to retreat.

Since the 1930s, hydrogen has run into application difficulties in implementing what has appeared, on the surface, to be its great allure: in theory, it is more abundant and more versatile than all other fuel sources outside of petroleum. Hydrogen can be &mdash; and has been &mdash; a transportation fuel; it makes up 2.5% of all energy consumed due to its critical use in refining as an upgrading ingredient to turn heavy products, like residual fuel oil, into light products, like gasoline and diesel; it can be a source of power generation and can be stored longer and more efficiently as a last resort replacement for interruptible renewables like wind, solar, and hydro than utility-scale batteries; and since it burns at high temperatures, it can be a clean replacement for coking coal.
Obstacles surrounding its explosivity began to confront hydrogen with the Hindenburg disaster in 1937, which rapidly brought its promise as a light, clean fuel for zeppelin airships to an end. Despite this, it has been tamed as the principal fuel for rockets. Hydrogen now confronts scalability issues in creating electrolyzers, leakage issues when it comes to pipelines and storage, and cost hurdles along with &ldquo;not-in-my-backyard&rdquo; (NIMBY) obstacles. And the high cost of scalable projects has certainly slowed down the development of hydrogen projects globally.
But signs of breakthroughs have emerged over the past few years. This partly stems from an overall acceleration in green technology investments, which Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) indicates reached $1.1 trillion with 30% financing growth in 2022. Although very little of that acceleration was in hydrogen, the beginning of 2023 brought the first large-scale global hydrogen financing with an $8.5 billion hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia.
Between 2021 and 2022, the U.S. enacted a series of new laws, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which together with prior legislation and existing authorities are expected to provide as much as $1.7 trillion in investment incentives. A significant proportion of these incentives are for hydrogen projects, including via the support of hydrogen hubs around the country. The tax credits provided by the Inflation Reduction Act are so generous that net production costs of green hydrogen after adjusting for tax benefits could be negative later this decade. In response, Europe enacted its own Green Deal Industrial Plan, and government incentives are being offered in a growing list of countries already endowed with renewable resource potential and/or with the incentives to reach net zero, including Australia, Chile, China (the leading producer of hydrogen in the world), India, Japan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. It looks like it is time for hydrogen&rsquo;s doubting Thomases to retreat.

Hydrogen 101

The Subsidy Arms Race Is On

Hydrogen Costs Are Falling While Demand Is Rising  

Despite Momentum, Challenges Remain Ahead  

Since the 1930s, hydrogen has run into application difficulties in implementing what has appeared, on the surface, to be its great allure: in theory, it is more abundant and more versatile than all other fuel sources outside of petroleum. Hydrogen can be — and has been — a transportation fuel; it makes up 2.5% of all energy consumed due to its critical use in refining as an upgrading ingredient to turn heavy products, like residual fuel oil, into light products, like gasoline and diesel; it can be a source of power generation and can be stored longer and more efficiently as a last resort replacement for interruptible renewables like wind, solar, and hydro than utility-scale batteries; and since it burns at high temperatures, it can be a clean replacement for coking coal. Obstacles surrounding its explosivity began to confront hydrogen with the Hindenburg disaster in 1937, which rapidly brought its promise as a light, clean fuel for zeppelin airships to an end. Despite this, it has been tamed as the principal fuel for rockets. Hydrogen now confronts scalability issues in creating electrolyzers, leakage issues when it comes to pipelines and storage, and cost hurdles along with “not-in-my-backyard” (NIMBY) obstacles. And the high cost of scalable projects has certainly slowed down the development of hydrogen projects globally. But signs of breakthroughs have emerged over the past few years. This partly stems from an overall acceleration in green technology investments, which Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) indicates reached $1.1 trillion with 30% financing growth in 2022. Although very little of that acceleration was in hydrogen, the beginning of 2023 brought the first large-scale global hydrogen financing with an $8.5 billion hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia. Between 2021 and 2022, the U.S. enacted a series of new laws, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which together with prior legislation and existing authorities are expected to provide as much as $1.7 trillion in investment incentives. A significant proportion of these incentives are for hydrogen projects, including via the support of hydrogen hubs around the country. The tax credits provided by the Inflation Reduction Act are so generous that net production costs of green hydrogen after adjusting for tax benefits could be negative later this decade. In response, Europe enacted its own Green Deal Industrial Plan, and government incentives are being offered in a growing list of countries already endowed with renewable resource potential and/or with the incentives to reach net zero, including Australia, Chile, China (the leading producer of hydrogen in the world), India, Japan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. It looks like it is time for hydrogen’s doubting Thomases to retreat. Hydrogen 101   The Subsidy Arms Race Is On   Hydrogen Costs Are Falling While Demand Is Rising   Despite Momentum, Challenges Remain Ahead  

Despite nearly a century of allure, hydrogen has not been used to its full potential. Hydrogen shows particular promise in the transportation, hard-to-abate industrial, and power generation sectors, but still faces obstacles around scalability, cost, and public perceptions. However, as investment and policy momentum have been building in recent years, signs of breakthrough are emerging. Amid these high hopes, we discuss technical, political, and cost developments to better understand hydrogen’s potential future trajectory.


A Reality Check on the Hydrogen Craze

Despite nearly a century of allure, hydrogen has not been used to its full potential. Hydrogen shows particular promise in the transportation, hard-to-abate industrial, and power generation sectors, but still faces obstacles around scalability, cost, and public perceptions. However, as investment and policy momentum have been building in recent years, signs of breakthrough are emerging. Amid these high hopes, we discuss technical, political, and cost developments to better understand hydrogen’s potential future trajectory.

Hydrogen

Generative AI has burst onto the scene following the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. As a concept, artificial intelligence (AI) is not new, and Generative AI represents the latest inflection point in the evolution of AI. However, what is distinctive about Generative AI is the tremendous potential it holds to transform work across industries and boost overall productivity. Taking a more holistic view, Generative AI might not only bring the power of AI itself to the masses but in fact accelerate the wider democratization of innovation. We believe it is a game changer. Although it feels like Generative AI has come out of nowhere, the rise of AI starting in the 1950s and through its significant growth over the past decade. This growth has brought with it a host of potential opportunities and challenges. The first wave of potential opportunities for Generative AI is centered on the technology value stack. Historically, the Silicon layer has been the de facto foundation of almost all technological shifts in the technology value stack, and Generative AI is expected to drive significant growth for compute (i.e., processing power), networking, and memory chips. However, we see opportunities in each layer. In the Infrastructure & Platforms layer, we see the hyperscalers/cloud providers racing today to build the underlying infrastructure that enables Generative AI applications and services, but over time we expect to see higher or more differentiation. When it comes to Models and Machine Learning Operations (MLOps), the open-source community is likely to be a key driver of innovation. Moving further up the stack, we believe nearly all software companies will be impacted in some form by Generative AI, and company-specific execution will be critical. Lastly, we believe Generative AI represents a step forward from ongoing AI/automation initiatives at the Services layer. Opportunities are not just limited to the technology value stack —they are also spilling into sectors outside of technology. To capture the full picture, we extended our analysis to look at the impact of Generative AI across six supersectors. We do this through a two-stage framework to assess risk/reward and apply that broadly across companies and sectors. Our analysis finds the Financials & FinTech supersector to be the most likely to be impacted overall, followed by the Consumer sector. At the other end of the spectrum, Natural Resources & ClimateTech at this stage look the least likely ones to be impacted. Key challenges include those centered around bias, inequality, authenticity, infringements as well as the more debated one underpinned by existential concerns. The emergence of Generative AI has unsurprisingly seen AI as a broader topic become a firm focus for policy makers around the world. However, the regulatory path taken so far has varied. Given the stakes involved, we believe policy and governance evolution will play a defining role. What does the future look like for Generative AI? We investigate the global trends and growth is from the perspective of investment in technological innovation. We do this by analyzing the number of AI-related patent applications over time and across countries. Research papers are also telling, with the total cumulative AI research output increasing 1,300% between 2003 and 2021. Given the importance of AI as a foundational technology, the race is on between countries for scientific and technological dominance.

Generative AI has burst onto the scene following the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. As a concept, artificial intelligence (AI) is not new, and Generative AI represents the latest inflection point in the evolution of AI. However, what is distinctive about Generative AI is the tremendous potential it holds to transform work across industries and boost overall productivity. Taking a more holistic view, Generative AI might not only bring the power of AI itself to the masses but in fact accelerate the wider democratization of innovation. We believe it is a game changer.
Although it feels like Generative AI has come out of nowhere, the rise of AI starting in the 1950s and through its significant growth over the past decade. This growth has brought with it a host of potential opportunities and challenges. The first wave of potential opportunities for Generative AI is centered on the technology value stack. Historically, the Silicon layer has been the de facto foundation of almost all technological shifts in the technology value stack, and Generative AI is expected to drive significant growth for compute (i.e., processing power), networking, and memory chips.
However, we see opportunities in each layer. In the Infrastructure &amp; Platforms layer, we see the hyperscalers/cloud providers racing today to build the underlying infrastructure that enables Generative AI applications and services, but over time we expect to see higher or more differentiation. When it comes to Models and Machine Learning Operations (MLOps), the open-source community is likely to be a key driver of innovation. Moving further up the stack, we believe nearly all software companies will be impacted in some form by Generative AI, and company-specific execution will be critical. Lastly, we believe Generative AI represents a step forward from ongoing AI/automation initiatives at the Services layer.
<img src="/rcs/v1/media/citigpa/akpublic/storage/retrieveMediaFile/64f7dc62b7581721266e09ae.png" alt="Tech" />
Opportunities are not just limited to the technology value stack &mdash;they are also spilling into sectors outside of technology. To capture the full picture, we extended our analysis to look at the impact of Generative AI across six supersectors. We do this through a two-stage framework to assess risk/reward and apply that broadly across companies and sectors. Our analysis finds the Financials &amp; FinTech supersector to be the most likely to be impacted overall, followed by the Consumer sector. At the other end of the spectrum, Natural Resources &amp; ClimateTech at this stage look the least likely ones to be impacted.
<img src="/rcs/v1/media/citigpa/akpublic/storage/retrieveMediaFile/64f7dc83c1acef4c8ae226e1.png" alt="Supersectors.JPG/" />
Key challenges include those centered around bias, inequality, authenticity, infringements as well as the more debated one underpinned by existential concerns. The emergence of Generative AI has unsurprisingly seen AI as a broader topic become a firm focus for policy makers around the world. However, the regulatory path taken so far has varied. Given the stakes involved, we believe policy and governance evolution will play a defining role.
What does the future look like for Generative AI? We investigate the global trends and growth is from the perspective of investment in technological innovation. We do this by analyzing the number of AI-related patent applications over time and across countries. Research papers are also telling, with the total cumulative AI research output increasing 1,300% between 2003 and 2021. Given the importance of AI as a foundational technology, the race is on between countries for scientific and technological dominance.

What does the future look like for Generative AI? One way to investigate the global trends and growth is from the perspective of investment in technological innovation. We do this by analyzing the number of AI-related patent applications over time and across countries. Research papers are also telling, with the total cumulative AI research output increasing 1,300% between 2003 and 2021. Given the importance of AI as a foundational technology, the race is on between countries for scientific and technological dominance.

The AI Arms Race

Generative AI represents the latest inflection point in the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI). Although AI is not new, what is distinctive about Generative AI is the tremendous potential it holds to transform work across industries and boost overall productivity. We look at the opportunities for AI not only in the technology sector but across six supersectors. Given the race to dominate in the AI space, we also analyzing research papers and patents by country.

Unleashing AI

The importance of AI for Biopharma, in the view of Alexion (AstraZeneca’s rare disease unit), and how the company is using it.

AI & Biopharma – A quick take from AstraZeneca

The importance of AI for Biopharma, in Amgen’s view, and how the company is using it.

AI & Biopharma – A Quick Take from Amgen

The importance of AI for Biopharma, in the view of Generate:Biomedicines, and how the company is using it.

AI & Biopharma – A quick take from Generate:Biomedicines

Key topics discussed: • Areas in which AI will act like healthcare professionals • The extent to which AI will augment the work of doctors and other clinicians • The impact on consumers / patients • What it means for healthcare professionals and for the wider healthcare system • Expected regulation • Potential business models

Key topics discussed:
&bull; Areas in which AI will act like healthcare professionals
&bull; The extent to which AI will augment the work of doctors and other clinicians
&bull; The impact on consumers / patients
&bull; What it means for healthcare professionals and for the wider healthcare system
&bull; Expected regulation
&bull; Potential business models

In conversation with Munjal Shah, CEO - HippocraticAI.

AI in Healthcare: How will AI Change the Role of Clinicians?

The 2023 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit will confront the most significant issues affecting medical research, preventative care, and public health.
The world is facing a new generation of challenges and opportunities. Technological advances are transforming the healthcare ecosystem, yet efforts to advance health equity are often overlooked. Climate change continues to have a profound impact on determinants of health, with recent extreme weather events further highlighting the outsized impact of a warming planet on vulnerable populations.
The 2023 Future of Health Summit will advance our work in chronic disease, health equity, mental health, and more. By bringing together medical experts, leading scientists, and political leaders, the 2023 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit will foster innovative solutions and turn ideas into actionable policy.
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For more information <a href="https://milkeninstitute.org/events/future-of-health-summit-2023/overview" data-link-source="tiny">click here</a>

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15:00-16:00: Fueling Innovations in Health Care: Leveraging Capital in Changing Markets

The Milken Institute Future of Health Summit 2023

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Richard Ditizio

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Adaeze Enekwechi

Mohamed Ghanem

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