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In the end, the team concluded that while emerging markets were expected to continue to do well in the coming years, replicating their outperformance of the past quarter century would be difficult. Instead, they suggested investors should look to new geographies — the frontier markets — arguing that these markets had many of the same characteristics that emerging markets did when they were first identified as an investable group back in 1988. Fast forward nearly two years and the frontier market story has matured with frontier equity markets outperforming both their larger emerging market peers and developed markets, accompanied by strong fund inflows with assets under management nearly doubling in that time period. As investor interest continues to increase, we thought it was timely to revisit the original arguments as to why frontier markets would be the new generation of emerging markets. The long-term catch-up and convergence story for frontier markets remains intact. These countries tend to be less economically developed than their emerging peers, have a higher degree of political risk, and despite recent performance, their stock markets are smaller than they should be given the size of the population and potential economic output of the countries in which they are based. In this report, there are three sets of drivers that have been identified as underpinning the frontier markets story: economic, financial and business. Economic growth in frontier markets is being helped by favorable demographics and rising productivity while foreign direct investment, an improvement in institutional quality, and debt levels which have not been inflated are helping to drive expansion. As investor interest grows, frontier financial markets’ depth and breadth should continue to converge towards emerging market levels. Opportunities for corporates tend to be greater in frontier markets due to lower penetration levels of a range of goods and services, the rising demand for infrastructure and the significant barriers to entry in many industries. But of course an investment in frontier markets comes with substantially higher risks than an investment in developed or emerging markets. Political risk in particular has been a defining characteristic of frontier markets and the report takes a close look at how shifting and more volatile public opinion — Vox Populi — poses a new and powerful risk to the investment environment. Finally, the report revisits two major economies — Nigeria and Vietnam — which represent the best of what the frontier markets have to offer but also face what we believe are fairly typical challenges for the asset class.

In the end, the team concluded that while emerging markets were expected to continue to do well in the coming years, replicating their outperformance of the past quarter century would be difficult. Instead, they suggested investors should look to new geographies &mdash; the frontier markets &mdash; arguing that these markets had many of the same characteristics that emerging markets did when they were first identified as an investable group back in 1988.
Fast forward nearly two years and the frontier market story has matured with frontier equity markets outperforming both their larger emerging market peers and developed markets, accompanied by strong fund inflows with assets under management nearly doubling in that time period. As investor interest continues to increase, we thought it was timely to revisit the original arguments as to why frontier markets would be the new generation of emerging markets.
The long-term catch-up and convergence story for frontier markets remains intact. These countries tend to be less economically developed than their emerging peers, have a higher degree of political risk, and despite recent performance, their stock markets are smaller than they should be given the size of the population and potential economic output of the countries in which they are based.
In this report, there are three sets of drivers that have been identified as underpinning the frontier markets story: economic, financial and business. Economic growth in frontier markets is being helped by favorable demographics and rising productivity while foreign direct investment, an improvement in institutional quality, and debt levels which have not been inflated are helping to drive expansion. As investor interest grows, frontier financial markets&rsquo; depth and breadth should continue to converge towards emerging market levels. Opportunities for corporates tend to be greater in frontier markets due to lower penetration levels of a range of goods and services, the rising demand for infrastructure and the significant barriers to entry in many industries.
But of course an investment in frontier markets comes with substantially higher risks than an investment in developed or emerging markets. Political risk in particular has been a defining characteristic of frontier markets and the report takes a close look at how shifting and more volatile public opinion &mdash; Vox Populi &mdash; poses a new and powerful risk to the investment environment. Finally, the report revisits two major economies &mdash; Nigeria and Vietnam &mdash; which represent the best of what the frontier markets have to offer but also face what we believe are fairly typical challenges for the asset class.

On the Right Track to Be Tomorrow's Emerging Markets

As both markets and economies started to recover from the Great Financial Crisis back in late 2011, Citi’s Equity Strategy team decided to take an in-depth look at the performance of emerging markets. In a Citi GPS report titled Call of the Frontier: The Search for a New Generation of Emerging Markets, the team focused on the characteristics that drove the 24-year outperformance of emerging overdeveloped markets and questioned whether it was possible for this asset class to repeat the consistent growth rate that it achieved in the past few decades (from 1988 to 2013, emerging markets grew at a compound annual growth rate of 12.1%).

Call of the Frontier Revisited

While the group of markets we call emerging markets (EMs) are expected to continue to do well in the coming years, we believe that replicating their outperformance of the past quarter century will be difficult. The EM's have evolved, both in terms of their size and the pace of their growth, versus the world as a whole. Greater political stability, improvements in infrastructure, a growth in consumerism, and a rapid expansion in trade have driven dramatic changes in the fabric of emerging market countries. As EMs have matured and become less risky places, the expected returns form investing in them have almost certainly converged downward. Replicating the higher returns of EMs past may require investors to look to new geographies: the Frontier Markets. These markets have relatively small/illiquid equity markets compared with emerging markets, and tend to be less economically developed. An essential element of our argument is that frontier markets are smaller than they should be given the size of population and potential economic output of the country in which they are based. In this report, we focus on 15 countries in particular - our "Frontier-15" - which have the potential to generate the kind of returns for equity investors over the coming decades that the emerging markets themselves have produced over the past quarter-century. These are Argentina, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ghana, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Mongolia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Romania, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Vietnam. In addition, we look in more detail at the economic outlook for two of the economies that rank among the fastest long-term growers within the Global Growth Generators (3G) growth framework: Nigeria and Vietnam. Despite headwinds for both countries, the opportunity for each economy is undeniable given the presence of key ingredients to economic growth: large, young populations; low per capita incomes; greater openness to trade; in the case of Nigeria, a large natural resource base, in the case of Vietnam, fast-growing, industrializing neighbors. There are plenty of near-term challenges to both economic and financial market success in these countries. Developing economies benefit from global trade and capital flows, and as such will not be immune to economic instability stemming from the Eurozone's troubles. Institutions tend to be weak, and policies uncertain. Looking beyond the near term, however, we believe that frontier markets will achieve some degree of convergence with both emerging and developed markets. A range of economic and financial factors, as well as features of the business environment should support this. Over time, the frontier markets are likely to adopt many of the changes implemented by their more successful peers - the emerging markets - while doing their best to avoid their own more egregious mistakes of the past. Given their starting point, even modest improvements can yield significant results. Such has been the story with emerging markets, and indeed the developed markets before them. The frontier beckons.

While the group of markets we call emerging markets (EMs) are expected to continue to do well in the coming years, we believe that replicating their outperformance of the past quarter century will be difficult. The EM's have evolved, both in terms of their size and the pace of their growth, versus the world as a whole. Greater political stability, improvements in infrastructure, a growth in consumerism, and a rapid expansion in trade have driven dramatic changes in the fabric of emerging market countries. As EMs have matured and become less risky places, the expected returns form investing in them have almost certainly converged downward.
Replicating the higher returns of EMs past may require investors to look to new geographies: the Frontier Markets. These markets have relatively small/illiquid equity markets compared with emerging markets, and tend to be less economically developed. An essential element of our argument is that frontier markets are smaller than they should be given the size of population and potential economic output of the country in which they are based.
In this report, we focus on 15 countries in particular - our "Frontier-15" - which have the potential to generate the kind of returns for equity investors over the coming decades that the emerging markets themselves have produced over the past quarter-century. These are Argentina, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ghana, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Mongolia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Romania, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Vietnam.
In addition, we look in more detail at the economic outlook for two of the economies that rank among the fastest long-term growers within the Global Growth Generators (3G) growth framework: Nigeria and Vietnam. Despite headwinds for both countries, the opportunity for each economy is undeniable given the presence of key ingredients to economic growth: large, young populations; low per capita incomes; greater openness to trade; in the case of Nigeria, a large natural resource base, in the case of Vietnam, fast-growing, industrializing neighbors.
There are plenty of near-term challenges to both economic and financial market success in these countries. Developing economies benefit from global trade and capital flows, and as such will not be immune to economic instability stemming from the Eurozone's troubles. Institutions tend to be weak, and policies uncertain. Looking beyond the near term, however, we believe that frontier markets will achieve some degree of convergence with both emerging and developed markets. A range of economic and financial factors, as well as features of the business environment should support this. Over time, the frontier markets are likely to adopt many of the changes implemented by their more successful peers - the emerging markets - while doing their best to avoid their own more egregious mistakes of the past. Given their starting point, even modest improvements can yield significant results. Such has been the story with emerging markets, and indeed the developed markets before them. The frontier beckons.

The search for a new generation of emerging markets

Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Such a maxim reflects one of the basic tenets of financial markets. Investors demand a higher expected return for investing in projects of greater uncertainty. Over the past 24 years - and especially over the past decade - investing in emerging markets have certainly delivered those higher returns. A $1,000 investment in the MSCI Emerging Markets index on the day it was launched in 1988 would be worth $17,553 today, including reinvested dividends, a compound annual return of 12.7%. This compares with the same investment in the MSCI World index, which today would be worth just $4,940, a compound annual return of 6.9%.

Call of the Frontier

To give an idea of the potential impact of growth, Citi’s February 2011 long-term growth projection paper, Global Growth Generators: Moving Beyond ‘Emerging Markets’ and ‘BRIC’ , argued that Africa could move from accounting for only 4% of world GDP in 2010 to 7% by 2040 and 12% by 2050. In this new report we examine in much greater depth the prospects for growth in SSA and ask what steps need to be taken to generate truly transformational development that can unlock the potential of the continent's demographic and resources dividend. Critically, to unlock the full potential policymakers must find a path from the current growth model to one which achieves greater global economic integration. Clearly the rise in global commodity prices has played an important role in the growth pick-up throughout the 2000s in SSA, but we show that commodities have only made up about a third of the overall increase. In order to continue the growth trajectory of the past, a focus on the other two thirds of the growth story — improved political stability, better economic policy and a new wave of investment into SSA by corporates — is required. There is unlikely to be any one standard “off the shelf” model of growth that a typical SSA country can follow in the coming decades. Looking at a combination of a country’s demographics, political and economic heritage, plus its resource endowment, provides a base of a framework for development models. Increased economic integration could be obtained through the expansion of the service sector, revisiting manufacturing or agriculture potential, or encouraging an effective development state which supports economic growth, provides public services and reduces poverty. Inward-looking economies with large populations and domestic markets could provide us with a “new big five” in SSA — Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan and Tanzania. Countries that are “coastal outward lookers” have smaller domestic markets but better education levels and infrastructure which gives them the potential to develop a significant manufacturing export business. For countries that have the infrastructure constraint of being landlocked then regional market trade could provide the best means for economic growth. In the end the real challenge for SSA policymakers is to make more fundamental decisions around infrastructure investment and improve the business operating environment, as well as to develop a much clearer and more coherent picture about where their particular country fits into the global economy in the future. We think this will be necessary to encourage truly transformative growth that will drive the integration of SSA into the global economy.

To give an idea of the potential impact of growth, Citi&rsquo;s February 2011 long-term growth projection paper, Global Growth Generators: Moving Beyond &lsquo;Emerging Markets&rsquo; and &lsquo;BRIC&rsquo; , argued that Africa could move from accounting for only 4% of world GDP in 2010 to 7% by 2040 and 12% by 2050. In this new report we examine in much greater depth the prospects for growth in SSA and ask what steps need to be taken to generate truly transformational development that can unlock the potential of the continent's demographic and resources dividend. Critically, to unlock the full potential policymakers must find a path from the current growth model to one which achieves greater global economic integration.
Clearly the rise in global commodity prices has played an important role in the growth pick-up throughout the 2000s in SSA, but we show that commodities have only made up about a third of the overall increase. In order to continue the growth trajectory of the past, a focus on the other two thirds of the growth story &mdash; improved political stability, better economic policy and a new wave of investment into SSA by corporates &mdash; is required.
There is unlikely to be any one standard &ldquo;off the shelf&rdquo; model of growth that a typical SSA country can follow in the coming decades. Looking at a combination of a country&rsquo;s demographics, political and economic heritage, plus its resource endowment, provides a base of a framework for development models. Increased economic integration could be obtained through the expansion of the service sector, revisiting manufacturing or agriculture potential, or encouraging an effective development state which supports economic growth, provides public services and reduces poverty.
Inward-looking economies with large populations and domestic markets could provide us with a &ldquo;new big five&rdquo; in SSA &mdash; Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan and Tanzania. Countries that are &ldquo;coastal outward lookers&rdquo; have smaller domestic markets but better education levels and infrastructure which gives them the potential to develop a significant manufacturing export business. For countries that have the infrastructure constraint of being landlocked then regional market trade could provide the best means for economic growth.
In the end the real challenge for SSA policymakers is to make more fundamental decisions around infrastructure investment and improve the business operating environment, as well as to develop a much clearer and more coherent picture about where their particular country fits into the global economy in the future. We think this will be necessary to encourage truly transformative growth that will drive the integration of SSA into the global economy.

The Route to Transformative Growth

The potential for economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is enormous given the continent’s positive demographics and the abundance of natural resources, but historically, infrastructure, political and policy challenges have stood in the way. Without question, there has been a sharp pick up in real GDP growth in the region in the 2000s compared to the previous two decades, when SSA was often seen as a development disaster. This pick-up has led to a marked change in how many investors think about SSA, and has facilitated a switch from decades of Afro-pessimism to the new wave of Afro-optimism.

Sub-Saharan Africa

The answers to these questions are sobering. Our recent research finds that, although demographics in the emerging markets are likely to remain more favorable than in the advanced economies, there are reasons for caution. First, demographics in the emerging markets will be strikingly less supportive of growth in the years ahead than has been the case in recent decades. The emerging markets are better positioned than the advanced economies, but they face meaningful challenges themselves. A second reason for caution is that Chinese demographics look broadly similar to those in the advanced economies. Consistent with this observation, we see the effects of population aging as likely to weigh heavily on growth in China, subtracting as much as 3 percentage points relative to the pace of expansion in recent decades. The difficulties Chinese policymakers face as they pilot their economy through this demographic transition strikes us as an under-appreciated global risk. The information insight further frames this discussion. As shown in the left panel, the share of the working-age population in Japan peaked in the early 1990s, as the asset bubble burst and has subsequently fallen off sharply. Almost in lockstep, the Japanese GDP deflator (a broad measure of prices) also peaked and has since been on a downward trajectory. Similarly, nominal GDP first slowed, then stagnated, and eventually stepped down during the financial crisis. We do not believe that Japan’s twenty-year economic sclerosis can be explained solely by demographic variables, but these correlations are striking and suggest that demographics played a role. The right panel highlights what this might mean in the years ahead for emerging Asia, a region which accounts for over half the world’s population. Notably, China’s working-age population share (that is, the share of people age 15 to 64) is slated to decline through the next two decades; indeed, the drop is expected to be almost as steep as that recorded in Japan in recent years. This doesn’t imply that China is poised for a Japanese-style stagnation, but it does suggest that demographics will be less supportive of growth than in the recent past. In contrast, other emerging Asian countries will generally see their working-age population shares continue to rise, albeit somewhat more gradually than in the recent past. Several other features of global demographics are also likely to cast a shadow on world economic performance. The good news here is that the global population is expected to keep growing in coming decades, expanding at a pace of about 1 percent annually, just a little slower than in recent years. The bad news is that the working-age population share is poised to level off over the next few years and to decline thereafter, reversing the sustained rise in recent decades. Our research indicates that the working-age population share has considerable economic importance, as it captures the availability (and perhaps even the vitality) of labor resources in the population. As such, we see this impending downturn in the share of the working-age population as pointing to a potentially troubling turning point for the world economy. As a related matter, in recent decades the advanced economies have enjoyed larger working-age population shares than the emerging-market economies. But going forward, this advantage will swing to the emerging markets. The full implications of this demographic shift for the relative supplies of labor across countries and regions, as well as for the attractiveness of investment in various parts of the world, remain an open issue. Our sense is that these developments are likely to intensify incentives for immigration to the advanced economies (where capital will be relatively abundant) and for capital flows to the emerging markets (where labor will be relatively abundant). The clear conclusion is that sizable resource flows across countries will remain a fact of life in the decades ahead. Overall, our view is that any demographic lift coming from the emerging markets is unlikely to meaningfully offset the headwinds from aging in the advanced economies. Rather, we believe that the world as a whole is likely to feel the strains associated with shifting demographics. That said, there are important variations across countries and regions. While China’s demographic profile is set to deteriorate dramatically (as is Korea’s), countries such as India and Indonesia will face relatively supportive demographics. The open — and in our view uncertain question — is whether these countries are now well positioned to emerge as engines of growth for the global economy. Africa, another notable example, is likely to account for a sizable portion of global population growth over the next two decades and will find itself home to roughly one-fifth of the world’s population by 2030. This will have significant implications for Africa’s share of global migration flows, its voice in global deliberations, and the importance of its financial markets. Although the headwinds associated with aging are likely to be significant, economic outcomes are in no sense predetermined. Aging poses serious challenges, but it also presents opportunities. The ability of market economies to adapt should not be underestimated. In the face of shifting demographics, we expect firms to substitute toward more capital-intensive production technologies, thus allowing labor resources to be used more efficiently. There is also scope to implement policies to blunt the adverse effects of aging, including measures to stimulate labor force participation—particularly of older workers. The task of structuring such incentives is one of the major challenges policymakers face as the global economy continues its transition into a very different demographic landscape. For a full version of this report see “Perspectives: The Global Demographic Transition—What Role Are China & Other Emerging Asian Economies Likely to Play?” on Citi Velocity. Authors:

<div class="preview">
<img class="size-full wp-image-1931 alignleft" src="http://sd-ceeb-f1cb:8082/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Capture-4.png" alt="" width="573" height="310" />
The answers to these questions are sobering. Our recent research finds that, although demographics in the emerging markets are likely to remain more favorable than in the advanced economies, there are reasons for caution. First, demographics in the emerging markets will be strikingly less supportive of growth in the years ahead than has been the case in recent decades. The emerging markets are better positioned than the advanced economies, but they face meaningful challenges themselves.
A second reason for caution is that Chinese demographics look broadly similar to those in the advanced economies. Consistent with this observation, we see the effects of population aging as likely to weigh heavily on growth in China, subtracting as much as 3 percentage points relative to the pace of expansion in recent decades. The difficulties Chinese policymakers face as they pilot their economy through this demographic transition strikes us as an under-appreciated global risk.
The information insight further frames this discussion. As shown in the left panel, the share of the working-age population in Japan peaked in the early 1990s, as the asset bubble burst and has subsequently fallen off sharply. Almost in lockstep, the Japanese GDP deflator (a broad measure of prices) also peaked and has since been on a downward trajectory. Similarly, nominal GDP first slowed, then stagnated, and eventually stepped down during the financial crisis. We do not believe that Japan&rsquo;s twenty-year economic sclerosis can be explained solely by demographic variables, but these correlations are striking and suggest that demographics played a role.
The right panel highlights what this might mean in the years ahead for emerging Asia, a region which accounts for over half the world&rsquo;s population. Notably, China&rsquo;s working-age population share (that is, the share of people age 15 to 64) is slated to decline through the next two decades; indeed, the drop is expected to be almost as steep as that recorded in Japan in recent years. This doesn&rsquo;t imply that China is poised for a Japanese-style stagnation, but it does suggest that demographics will be less supportive of growth than in the recent past. In contrast, other emerging Asian countries will generally see their working-age population shares continue to rise, albeit somewhat more gradually than in the recent past.
Several other features of global demographics are also likely to cast a shadow on world economic performance. The good news here is that the global population is expected to keep growing in coming decades, expanding at a pace of about 1 percent annually, just a little slower than in recent years. The bad news is that the working-age population share is poised to level off over the next few years and to decline thereafter, reversing the sustained rise in recent decades.
Our research indicates that the working-age population share has considerable economic importance, as it captures the availability (and perhaps even the vitality) of labor resources in the population. As such, we see this impending downturn in the share of the working-age population as pointing to a potentially troubling turning point for the world economy.
As a related matter, in recent decades the advanced economies have enjoyed larger working-age population shares than the emerging-market economies. But going forward, this advantage will swing to the emerging markets. The full implications of this demographic shift for the relative supplies of labor across countries and regions, as well as for the attractiveness of investment in various parts of the world, remain an open issue. Our sense is that these developments are likely to intensify incentives for immigration to the advanced economies (where capital will be relatively abundant) and for capital flows to the emerging markets (where labor will be relatively abundant). The clear conclusion is that sizable resource flows across countries will remain a fact of life in the decades ahead.
Overall, our view is that any demographic lift coming from the emerging markets is unlikely to meaningfully offset the headwinds from aging in the advanced economies. Rather, we believe that the world as a whole is likely to feel the strains associated with shifting demographics.
That said, there are important variations across countries and regions. While China&rsquo;s demographic profile is set to deteriorate dramatically (as is Korea&rsquo;s), countries such as India and Indonesia will face relatively supportive demographics. The open &mdash; and in our view uncertain question &mdash; is whether these countries are now well positioned to emerge as engines of growth for the global economy. Africa, another notable example, is likely to account for a sizable portion of global population growth over the next two decades and will find itself home to roughly one-fifth of the world&rsquo;s population by 2030. This will have significant implications for Africa&rsquo;s share of global migration flows, its voice in global deliberations, and the importance of its financial markets.
Although the headwinds associated with aging are likely to be significant, economic outcomes are in no sense predetermined. Aging poses serious challenges, but it also presents opportunities. The ability of market economies to adapt should not be underestimated. In the face of shifting demographics, we expect firms to substitute toward more capital-intensive production technologies, thus allowing labor resources to be used more efficiently. There is also scope to implement policies to blunt the adverse effects of aging, including measures to stimulate labor force participation&mdash;particularly of older workers. The task of structuring such incentives is one of the major challenges policymakers face as the global economy continues its transition into a very different demographic landscape.
For a full version of this report see &ldquo;Perspectives: The Global Demographic Transition&mdash;What Role Are China &amp; Other Emerging Asian Economies Likely to Play?&rdquo; on Citi Velocity.
&nbsp;Authors: 
</div>

Citi GPS Opinion Article

Looming demographics challenges in the advanced economies are now receiving considerable attention. The potential implications for government debt burdens, international competitiveness, and the availability of adequate supplies of labor are increasingly apparent. But what is the outlook for demographics in the rest of the world, particularly in the rapidly growing emerging-market economies? Will these other economies remain sufficiently youthful to offset the drag stemming from aging in the advanced world?

Global Demographics: Emerging Markets to the Rescue?

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