Citigroup.com Homepage

E4: Inflation, Jobs, and the Path to U.S. Rate Cuts

Podcast  •  June 20, 2024
Research
Share on LinkedIn
Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Copy Link
Print
Share with Email
Download attachments

This year kicked off with financial markets expecting multiple rate cuts from the Fed, as a slowing trend in jobs growth and easing inflation expectations closed out 2023. But the first quarter revealed a series of upside surprises to inflation, giving rise to the prospect that interest rates might well remain “higher for longer”.  Why has everyone —from policymakers to pundits —consistently underestimated inflation this time around?

Join Citi’s Lucy Baldwin, Global Head of Citi Research, and Andrew Hollenhorst, U.S. Chief Economist, as they break down the dynamics of the current environment, including why the labor market is the linchpin for the economy overall.

This podcast contains thematic content and is not intended to be investment research. Nor does it constitute financial, economic, legal, tax or accounting advice. This podcast is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instruments. The contents of this podcast are not based on your individual circumstances and should not be relied upon as an assessment of suitability for you of a particular product, security, or transaction. The information in this podcast is based on generally available information and, although obtained from sources believed by Citi to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. This podcast may not be copied or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Citi. © 2024 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Member SIPC. All rights reserved. Citi and Citi and Arc Design are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates and are used and registered throughout the world.

Lucy Baldwin is a Managing Director and Global Head of Citi Research. She is responsible for managing Citi’s global independent research across all asset classes. Lucy joined Citigroup in April 2021 from Credit Suisse, where she was Global Head of Equity Sales. Prior to Credit Suisse, she was at Bank of America as Head of European Equity Sales (2015-2019), and at Goldman Sachs as a Director of European Equity Research and in a variety of research analyst roles (2006-2015). Lucy started her career at Cazenove as an equity research analyst covering the building materials sector. She graduated from the University of Birmingham in Economics. Lucy serves as a member of Council for the University of Birmingham and sits on the Investment Sub-committee. Additionally, she is a member of the Advisory Council for the Mossavar-Rahmani Centre for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School.

 

img

Andrew Hollenhorst leads Citi Research’s U.S. Economics Team and is responsible for Citi’s views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. The team endeavors to tie its views on economic fundamentals to outcomes in financial markets. Prior to his current role, he initiated Citi’s coverage of short-term interest rate markets and worked on cross-asset investment strategies.

Andrew holds a PhD in economics from UCLA and a BA in math and economics from UC Berkeley.

 

img

Up Next

Global Markets and Economy

The current state of the U.S. housing market can be traced back to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The ensuing retreat of builders and lenders resulted in housing starts trending below a pre-GFC average that had persisted for several decades — in an America with a much smaller population. 

 

June 05
Sustainability

The power grid is arguably the backbone of modern society. We’re now at a critical convergence of soaring power demand from the digital economy — driven by the rise of electric vehicles, data centers, artificial intelligence (AI), and other technological advances — and an aging grid that requires significant improvement. The International Energy Agency estimates that power lines globally will need to double in length between now and 2050, and that’s not including the old power lines that need to be replaced. Then there’s the red tape that stands in the way of new construction, the challenge of integrating renewable energy, and the need for coordinated planning to modernize the grid —all of which point to unprecedented, structural supply-and-demand shocks.

May 22
Global Markets and Economy

China’s once-staggering economic growth has stalled. It now faces myriad challenges, including persisting property market woes, rising geopolitical tensions and weak consumer demand. 

May 15

Sign up to receive the latest from Citi.