E4: Inflation, Jobs, and the Path to U.S. Rate Cuts
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This year kicked off with financial markets expecting multiple rate cuts from the Fed, as a slowing trend in jobs growth and easing inflation expectations closed out 2023. But the first quarter revealed a series of upside surprises to inflation, giving rise to the prospect that interest rates might well remain “higher for longer”. Why has everyone —from policymakers to pundits —consistently underestimated inflation this time around?
Join Citi’s Lucy Baldwin, Global Head of Citi Research, and Andrew Hollenhorst, U.S. Chief Economist, as they break down the dynamics of the current environment, including why the labor market is the linchpin for the economy overall.
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Lucy Baldwin, Global Head of Citi Research
Lucy Baldwin is a Managing Director and Global Head of Citi Research. She is responsible for managing Citi’s global independent research across all asset classes. Lucy joined Citigroup in April 2021 from Credit Suisse, where she was Global Head of Equity Sales. Prior to Credit Suisse, she was at Bank of America as Head of European Equity Sales (2015-2019), and at Goldman Sachs as a Director of European Equity Research and in a variety of research analyst roles (2006-2015). Lucy started her career at Cazenove as an equity research analyst covering the building materials sector. She graduated from the University of Birmingham in Economics. Lucy serves as a member of Council for the University of Birmingham and sits on the Investment Sub-committee. Additionally, she is a member of the Advisory Council for the Mossavar-Rahmani Centre for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Andrew Hollenhorst, U.S. Chief Economist, Citi Research
Andrew Hollenhorst leads Citi Research’s U.S. Economics Team and is responsible for Citi’s views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. The team endeavors to tie its views on economic fundamentals to outcomes in financial markets. Prior to his current role, he initiated Citi’s coverage of short-term interest rate markets and worked on cross-asset investment strategies.
Andrew holds a PhD in economics from UCLA and a BA in math and economics from UC Berkeley.
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