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The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been far reaching. The potential for remote work means that cash-strapped families are now able to escape the metropolis, where the cost of living crises has become particularly severe. But this trend might be short-lived. For one thing, if a job can be done remotely, it can also be offshored, meaning that regional convergence in advanced economies might be short lived. To what extent this will happen, remains an open empirical question. On the positive side, recent improvements in remote technology have made it much easier for scientists and innovators to collaborate at distance. Against this backdrop, we argue that a revival of breakthrough science seems likely and could reverse the productivity stagnation of recent decades. Trying to predict future trends and identify new technologies that will truly be disruptive can be both challenging and rewarding. It can also be incredibly humbling. Getting the trend right is only half the battle. The “you don’t know what you don’t know” is where things can get a little upside down. Our very first Technology at Work Citi GPS report was based on a seminal report from Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osbourne that predicted 47% of U.S. jobs were susceptible to automation over the coming decades. The rationale was that non-routine manual tasks were increasingly able to be automated, and for the first time, low-skill and low-income jobs were at risk of automation. Lower automation risk was attributed to jobs that were intensive in social and creative skills. We did also note that a growing share of office and administration support jobs would soon be subject to automation as advances in big data continued. We still think automation will continue to affect U.S. jobs and may impact even more sectors as recent developments in artificial intelligence take shape. But here is where our predictions missed something and “we didn’t know what we didn’t know”: The COVID-19 pandemic brought with it a rush of new technology that enabled workers to work from home while offices were closed. And while these advances were crucial to workers maintaining productivity from remote locations, it led to a realization: If a job could be done remotely, it could be done anywhere. Corporates in industries like technology, which were historically clustered in large cities, can now move out of high-priced city centers to lower-cost secondary hubs. Initially, this should lead to a decline in economic disparities between regions. As skilled professionals follow their companies to lower-cost areas, service jobs are created in their new locations, and unskilled workers who have been battling the high cost of urban housing can follow. But this shift may be short-lived. If a job can be done in a lower-cost region of the country, it can also be sent offshore. Similar to what happened in manufacturing decades ago, instead of moving a job to a secondary hub, corporates may decide to take advantage of the global wage arbitrage in professional jobs and move jobs outside the country. What can be done to avoid the loss of jobs? Policymakers in advanced economies should focus on supporting science and education. Remote technology boosts collaboration at a distance, which is leading to increased innovation and breakthrough science. This, in turn, can lead to new job creation. As we absorb this new information, we will keep trying to predict the future and identify the next disruptive innovation. As we keep learning from experience, hopefully we will get hit with fewer “don’t knows.”

<h3>The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been far reaching. The potential for remote work means that cash-strapped families are now able to escape the metropolis, where the cost of living crises has become particularly severe. But this trend might be short-lived. For one thing, if a job can be done remotely, it can also be offshored, meaning that regional convergence in advanced economies might be short lived. To what extent this will happen, remains an open empirical question. On the positive side, recent improvements in remote technology have made it much easier for scientists and innovators to collaborate at distance. Against this backdrop, we argue that a revival of breakthrough science seems likely and could reverse the productivity stagnation of recent decades.</h3>
Trying to predict future trends and identify new technologies that will truly be disruptive can be both challenging and rewarding. It can also be incredibly humbling. Getting the trend right is only half the battle. The &ldquo;you don&rsquo;t know what you don&rsquo;t know&rdquo; is where things can get a little upside down.
Our very first <a href="https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/citigps/technology-work" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link-source="tiny">Technology at Work</a> Citi GPS report was based on a seminal report from Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osbourne that predicted 47% of U.S. jobs were susceptible to automation over the coming decades. The rationale was that non-routine manual tasks were increasingly able to be automated, and for the first time, low-skill and low-income jobs were at risk of automation. Lower automation risk was attributed to jobs that were intensive in social and creative skills. We did also note that a growing share of office and administration support jobs would soon be subject to automation as advances in big data continued.
We still think automation will continue to affect U.S. jobs and may impact even more sectors as recent developments in artificial intelligence take shape. But here is where our predictions missed something and &ldquo;we didn&rsquo;t know what we didn&rsquo;t know&rdquo;: The COVID-19 pandemic brought with it a rush of new technology that enabled workers to work from home while offices were closed. And while these advances were crucial to workers maintaining productivity from remote locations, it led to a realization: If a job could be done remotely, it could be done anywhere.
Corporates in industries like technology, which were historically clustered in large cities, can now move out of high-priced city centers to lower-cost secondary hubs. Initially, this should lead to a decline in economic disparities between regions. As skilled professionals follow their companies to lower-cost areas, service jobs are created in their new locations, and unskilled workers who have been battling the high cost of urban housing can follow.
But this shift may be short-lived. If a job can be done in a lower-cost region of the country, it can also be sent offshore. Similar to what happened in manufacturing decades ago, instead of moving a job to a secondary hub, corporates may decide to take advantage of the global wage arbitrage in professional jobs and move jobs outside the country.
What can be done to avoid the loss of jobs? Policymakers in advanced economies should focus on supporting science and education. Remote technology boosts collaboration at a distance, which is leading to increased innovation and breakthrough science. This, in turn, can lead to new job creation.
As we absorb this new information, we will keep trying to predict the future and identify the next disruptive innovation. As we keep learning from experience, hopefully we will get hit with fewer &ldquo;don&rsquo;t knows.&rdquo;

Charting the Rise of Remote Work Globally To analyze the remote work revolution, we collected data on global job postings from LinkUp for 70 of the world&rsquo;s largest cities, spanning six continents, since the onset of the pandemic. The increase in remote work is broad-based across a range of professions. There was a robust relationship between the increase in remote work and cities with a lower cost of living.

To analyze the remote work revolution, we collected data on global job postings from LinkUp for 70 of the world&rsquo;s largest cities, spanning six continents, since the onset of the pandemic. The increase in remote work is broad-based across a range of professions. There was a robust relationship between the increase in remote work and cities with a lower cost of living.

Charting the Rise of Remote Work Globally

The Global Wage Arbitrage Over the course of the 20th century, manufacturing jobs gradually diffused from developed to emerging markets where labor was cheaper. A similar process is now playing out in technology and services. Going forward, competition for talent around the world will likely intensify with a global wage arbitrage developing for skilled workers as remote work increasingly becomes an option. If a job can be done remotely, it could also be done offshore.

Over the course of the 20th century, manufacturing jobs gradually diffused from developed to emerging markets where labor was cheaper. A similar process is now playing out in technology and services. Going forward, competition for talent around the world will likely intensify with a global wage arbitrage developing for skilled workers as remote work increasingly becomes an option. If a job can be done remotely, it could also be done offshore.

The Global Wage Arbitrage

Technology and Remote Collaboration As the proliferation of the internet drove an increase in remote collaboration scientists became more focused on incremental improvements rather than the kind of breakthrough technologies that open up new avenues for progress. However, new collaboration technology introduced in the 2010s created a turning point where remote teams became more likely to produce breakthrough discoveries relative to their onsite counterparts. The promise of remote collaboration is that connecting different local knowledge networks increases &nbsp;the innovating potential of the &ldquo;collective brain.&rdquo;

As the proliferation of the internet drove an increase in remote collaboration scientists became more focused on incremental improvements rather than the kind of breakthrough technologies that open up new avenues for progress. However, new collaboration technology introduced in the 2010s created a turning point where remote teams became more likely to produce breakthrough discoveries relative to their onsite counterparts. The promise of remote collaboration is that connecting different local knowledge networks increases &nbsp;the innovating potential of the &ldquo;collective brain.&rdquo;

Technology and Remote Collaboration

Implications of Remote Work Job creation since the computer revolution of the 1980s has been highly concentrated to a few superstar cities. The result has been a marked increase in regional inequality. However, a surge in collaborative technology during the pandemic is facilitating remote work as jobs shift to secondary hubs and locations where housing and labor is cheaper. The implications of this new geography of work include:

Job creation since the computer revolution of the 1980s has been highly concentrated to a few superstar cities. The result has been a marked increase in regional inequality. However, a surge in collaborative technology during the pandemic is facilitating remote work as jobs shift to secondary hubs and locations where housing and labor is cheaper. The implications of this new geography of work include:

Implications of Remote Work

The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been far reaching. The potential for remote work means that cash-strapped families are now able to escape the metropolis, where the cost of living crises has become particularly severe. But this trend might be short-lived. For one thing, if a job can be done remotely, it can also be offshored, meaning that regional convergence in advanced economies might be short lived. To what extent this will happen, remains an open empirical question. On the positive side, recent improvements in remote technology have made it much easier for scientists and innovators to collaborate at distance. Against this backdrop, we argue that a revival of breakthrough science seems likely and could reverse the productivity stagnation of recent decades. Trying to predict future trends and identify new technologies that will truly be disruptive can be both challenging and rewarding. It can also be incredibly humbling. Getting the trend right is only half the battle. The “you don’t know what you don’t know” is where things can get a little upside down. Our very first Technology at Work Citi GPS report was based on a seminal report from Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osbourne that predicted 47% of U.S. jobs were susceptible to automation over the coming decades. The rationale was that non-routine manual tasks were increasingly able to be automated, and for the first time, low-skill and low-income jobs were at risk of automation. Lower automation risk was attributed to jobs that were intensive in social and creative skills. We did also note that a growing share of office and administration support jobs would soon be subject to automation as advances in big data continued. We still think automation will continue to affect U.S. jobs and may impact even more sectors as recent developments in artificial intelligence take shape. But here is where our predictions missed something and “we didn’t know what we didn’t know”: The COVID-19 pandemic brought with it a rush of new technology that enabled workers to work from home while offices were closed. And while these advances were crucial to workers maintaining productivity from remote locations, it led to a realization: If a job could be done remotely, it could be done anywhere. Corporates in industries like technology, which were historically clustered in large cities, can now move out of high-priced city centers to lower-cost secondary hubs. Initially, this should lead to a decline in economic disparities between regions. As skilled professionals follow their companies to lower-cost areas, service jobs are created in their new locations, and unskilled workers who have been battling the high cost of urban housing can follow. But this shift may be short-lived. If a job can be done in a lower-cost region of the country, it can also be sent offshore. Similar to what happened in manufacturing decades ago, instead of moving a job to a secondary hub, corporates may decide to take advantage of the global wage arbitrage in professional jobs and move jobs outside the country. What can be done to avoid the loss of jobs? Policymakers in advanced economies should focus on supporting science and education. Remote technology boosts collaboration at a distance, which is leading to increased innovation and breakthrough science. This, in turn, can lead to new job creation. As we absorb this new information, we will keep trying to predict the future and identify the next disruptive innovation. As we keep learning from experience, hopefully we will get hit with fewer “don’t knows.” Charting the Rise of Remote Work Globally To analyze the remote work revolution, we collected data on global job postings from LinkUp for 70 of the world&rsquo;s largest cities, spanning six continents, since the onset of the pandemic. The increase in remote work is broad-based across a range of professions. There was a robust relationship between the increase in remote work and cities with a lower cost of living. The Global Wage Arbitrage Over the course of the 20th century, manufacturing jobs gradually diffused from developed to emerging markets where labor was cheaper. A similar process is now playing out in technology and services. Going forward, competition for talent around the world will likely intensify with a global wage arbitrage developing for skilled workers as remote work increasingly becomes an option. If a job can be done remotely, it could also be done offshore. Technology and Remote Collaboration As the proliferation of the internet drove an increase in remote collaboration scientists became more focused on incremental improvements rather than the kind of breakthrough technologies that open up new avenues for progress. However, new collaboration technology introduced in the 2010s created a turning point where remote teams became more likely to produce breakthrough discoveries relative to their onsite counterparts. The promise of remote collaboration is that connecting different local knowledge networks increases &nbsp;the innovating potential of the &ldquo;collective brain.&rdquo; Implications of Remote Work Job creation since the computer revolution of the 1980s has been highly concentrated to a few superstar cities. The result has been a marked increase in regional inequality. However, a surge in collaborative technology during the pandemic is facilitating remote work as jobs shift to secondary hubs and locations where housing and labor is cheaper. The implications of this new geography of work include:

The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been far reaching. The potential for remote work means that cash-strapped families are now able to escape the metropolis, where the cost of living crises has become particularly severe. But this trend might be short-lived. For one thing, if a job can be done remotely, it can also be offshored, meaning that regional convergence in advanced economies might be short lived. To what extent this will happen, remains an open empirical question. On the positive side, recent improvements in remote technology have made it much easier for scientists and innovators to collaborate at distance. Against this backdrop, we argue that a revival of breakthrough science seems likely and could reverse the productivity stagnation of recent decades.


The Third Phase of Globalization

The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been far reaching. The potential for remote work means that cash-strapped families are now able to escape the metropolis, where the cost of living crises has become particularly severe. 

Technology at Work v7.0

Citi&rsquo;s Rob Garlick asks Bill Schaninger and Christie Smith, Partners at Modern Executive Solutions, for their thoughts on what skills will be most valuable or important as Artificial Intelligence continues to advance. Bill advises senior executives on strengthening business performance through enhanced culture, values, and talent. He was previously Senior Partner Emeritus at McKinsey &amp; Company, leading their Global Talent practice, and is author of the book Power to the Middle. Christie leads Modern&rsquo;s Integrated Solutions Business. She was previously Global Leader of Talent &amp; Organisation Practice at Accenture and on the Global Management Team. Before Accenture, Christie was the Chief Diversity Officer at Apple and a Managing Principal at Deloitte. &nbsp;
&nbsp;

Citi&rsquo;s Rob Garlick asks Bill Schaninger and Christie Smith, Partners at Modern Executive Solutions, for their thoughts on what skills will be most valuable or important as Artificial Intelligence continues to advance.&nbsp;

Skills for Thriving Amid AI  

Citi&rsquo;s Rob Garlick and&nbsp; Eleni Nicolaides, Chief Corporate Development Officer,&nbsp; PeopleCert discuss how AI is driving a surge in upskilling of technical and human-centric skills.

AI Propels Upskilling Wave

Which human skills will come to the fore as artificial intelligence advances?
It&rsquo;s a question that comes up time and again. A new report from Citi GPS seeks to answer it.
We frame the debate around six key problems and potential solutions, building on previous Citi reports about how technology, including AI, will impact the future of work.&nbsp;
Problem 1 &ndash; AI will continue to advance, surpassing humans in many tasks.
Solution &ndash; We need greater emphasis on the areas in which humans will maintain competitive advantage versus AI.
Problem 2 &ndash; Most people don&rsquo;t know what the human skills of the future will be.
Solution &ndash; We ask 28 experts across a range of fields what they think the skills of the future will be, and why.&nbsp;
Problem 3 &ndash; How do we prepare for these essential human skills?
Solution &ndash; We summarize the expert views on how companies, education and policy can help, concluding that change is needed now.&nbsp;
Problem 4 &ndash; How do we better measure the human skills that will be increasingly important?
Solution &ndash; We are over-emphasizing the measurement of areas in which AI will surpass us and we need to get better at providing credentials for durable human skills.
Problem 5 &ndash; How do we then better share skill credentials?
Solution &ndash; Verified and interoperable skill wallets will grow to save time and money for individuals and companies. They are likely to become a new norm.
Problem 6 &ndash; Everyone knows that upskilling and reskilling are a big part of the answer to how humans adapt to AI, but so far this appears more rhetoric than reality.
Solution &ndash; We see a trend change in learning &amp; development driven by AI training, investment in skills training, coaching and psychological testing.
We think this report will be of interest to employers, educationalists, policy makers, employees, students and parents.
Increased awareness and debate is however only part of the story. As many experts we talked to note, we need action and execution.
<img src="/rcs/v1/media/citigpa/akpublic/storage/retrieveMediaFile/6659a76ac7b852097fbc6fee" width="813" height="386">
AI is not waiting for anyone. The race between AI&rsquo;s progress and the human ability to adapt has already started.

Read the <a href="https://ir.citi.com/gps/eaxy8PuU5wkCM0n-pPJ2rKHv2-Yl-OCvbyXwAXpO2gGllWBORUgW5_E_xKOou1Li-JtVrAFeSgRugppI7CkuaVGcOfXBxpktAJCzsr00JffX5EadbUXUYcQ-BcjQKP7_zKKIKY411r7OpiwpirS4XA%3D%3D" data-link-source="tiny">full report</a> now. To access more Citi GPS reports <a href="https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/citigps" data-link-source="tiny">click here</a>.&nbsp;

Human Skills to Thrive in the Age of AI

Which human skills will come the fore as artificial intelligence advances?&nbsp;It&rsquo;s a question that comes up time and again. A new report from Citi GPS seeks to answer it.