COP28

The Road to COP28 

Host Jason Channell, Head of Sustainable Finance, Citi Global Insights, meets with guests to discuss all the pressing topics around sustainability, as we lead up to the COP28 conference in Dubai. 

Transition Talks

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We take things for granted every day. In the morning it’s easy to take the coffee cart on the sidewalk outside the office for granted, despite it allowing us to start day with a warm cup of caffeine and a buttered roll. At 7a.m. there are likely few thoughts around the logistics necessary for the cart to be fully stocked and in the right location each morning, let alone the details around where the flour and coffee beans were grown. Being able to easily get breakfast is all the matters. In the Citi GPS Sustainability series, we have written extensively about climate change. Specifically, in Food and Climate Change: Creating Sustainable Food Systems for a Net Zero Future, we discussed the impact of food production on greenhouse gas emissions, and in Food Security: Tackling the Current Crisis and Building Future Resilience, we explored how climate change can heighten the ever-present global threat of food insecurity. But the big issue we may be overlooking is the relationship between food, water, and climate change. What happens if changes in climate affect the availability of water resources? And with water already stressed in many regions, could climate change lead to pressures on food production? In our new report, we investigate the connections between water, food, and climate change — known as the water, food, and climate nexus — with particular attention given to the impacts that too much or too little water could have on food production. Staple crops — rice, wheat, maize (corn), and soybeans — make up around two-thirds of the world’s food calories, making them critically important to consumers worldwide. Global production of these staple crops is highly concentrated in regions known as “breadbaskets,” and at least 72% of the global production of each of these crops is found in just five regions. Any changes to the growing conditions in these regions would have huge global consequences. In our analysis, we looked at the water stress levels in these five regions and found that in a “business-as-usual” climate change scenario, many countries have an extremely high risk of water stress in 2050. India is of particular concern, with over 70% of rice and 78% of wheat currently produced in areas that could have high-to-significant water stress in 2050. We then looked at the materiality of staple food production in each country, including whether the country is a large producer or exporter of these staple crops and the size of the country’s population. We found that a failure, or even a reduction, in crop yields in any of these countries would have a material impact on global food security, with cereal prices rising by 1% to 28% and an additional 1 million to 180 million people potentially going hungry. Moreover, nearly $3 trillion of business revenues of publicly listed companies could be affected. The good news is there are plenty of technological solutions that can help us avoid this dismal scenario, but good governance will also be important. We explore these opportunities in the report. The food, water, climate change nexus is critical and should not be taken for granted.

We take things for granted every day. In the morning it&rsquo;s easy to take the coffee cart on the sidewalk outside the office for granted, despite it allowing us to start day with a warm cup of caffeine and a buttered roll. At 7a.m. there are likely few thoughts around the logistics necessary for the cart to be fully stocked and in the right location each morning, let alone the details around where the flour and coffee beans were grown. Being able to easily get breakfast is all the matters.
In the Citi GPS Sustainability series, we have written extensively about climate change. Specifically, in <a href="https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/GPS/food-and-climate_20220719" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link-source="tiny">Food and Climate Change: Creating Sustainable Food Systems for a Net Zero Future</a>, we discussed the impact of food production on greenhouse gas emissions, and in <a href="https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/GPS/food-security" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link-source="tiny">Food Security: Tackling the Current Crisis and Building Future Resilience</a>, we explored how climate change can heighten the ever-present global threat of food insecurity.
But the big issue we may be overlooking is the relationship between food, water, and climate change. What happens if changes in climate affect the availability of water resources? And with water already stressed in many regions, could climate change lead to pressures on food production? In our new report, we investigate the connections between water, food, and climate change &mdash; known as the water, food, and climate nexus &mdash; with particular attention given to the impacts that too much or too little water could have on food production.
Staple crops &mdash; rice, wheat, maize (corn), and soybeans &mdash; make up around two-thirds of the world&rsquo;s food calories, making them critically important to consumers worldwide. Global production of these staple crops is highly concentrated in regions known as &ldquo;breadbaskets,&rdquo; and at least 72% of the global production of each of these crops is found in just five regions. Any changes to the growing conditions in these regions would have huge global consequences.
<img src="/rcs/v1/media/citigpa/akpublic/storage/retrieveMediaFile/656780675cb9b8276cef0fb4.png" alt="Food_Water_Climate" />
In our analysis, we looked at the water stress levels in these five regions and found that in a &ldquo;business-as-usual&rdquo; climate change scenario, many countries have an extremely high risk of water stress in 2050. India is of particular concern, with over 70% of rice and 78% of wheat currently produced in areas that could have high-to-significant water stress in 2050. We then looked at the materiality of staple food production in each country, including whether the country is a large producer or exporter of these staple crops and the size of the country&rsquo;s population.
We found that a failure, or even a reduction, in crop yields in any of these countries would have a material impact on global food security, with cereal prices rising by 1% to 28% and an additional 1 million to 180 million people potentially going hungry. Moreover, nearly $3 trillion of business revenues of publicly listed companies could be affected.
The good news is there are plenty of technological solutions that can help us avoid this dismal scenario, but good governance will also be important. We explore these opportunities in the report.
The food, water, climate change nexus is critical and should not be taken for granted.
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="/rcs/v1/media/citigpa/akpublic/storage/retrieveMediaFile/6567809d9cc09145f2fd4f06.png" alt="Food_Water_Climate" />
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Food Insecurity, Water, and Climate Change Agricultural production is highly susceptible to changes in climate. It is also reliant on the availability of water resources, which are already stressed in many regions important for food production. These water pressure will increase with climate chnage.&nbsp;

Agricultural production is highly susceptible to changes in climate. It is also reliant on the availability of water resources, which are already stressed in many regions important for food production. These water pressure will increase with climate chnage.&nbsp;

Food Insecurity, Water, and Climate Change

Food Production At Risk We analyzed crop-producing regions in key "breadbaskets" and found that large portions of food production occur in areas forecast to face varying levels of water stress risk due to climate change. Including all levels of water stress, we also assign a "materiality" rating to assess the impact of global food security from a decline in a region's food production. This rating is based on crop production levels, export levels, population size, and other water indicators such as drought.

We analyzed crop-producing regions in key "breadbaskets" and found that large portions of food production occur in areas forecast to face varying levels of water stress risk due to climate change. Including all levels of water stress, we also assign a "materiality" rating to assess the impact of global food security from a decline in a region's food production. This rating is based on crop production levels, export levels, population size, and other water indicators such as drought.

Food Production At Risk

Potential Impacts of No Action Doing nothing to prevent a potential water and food crisis will not only impact people's health and nutrition, but could also cause economic damage and political instability.&nbsp;

Doing nothing to prevent a potential water and food crisis will not only impact people's health and nutrition, but could also cause economic damage and political instability.&nbsp;

Potential Impacts of No Action

Solutions To help reduce and adapt to the impact of climate change on water resources and food production, we highlight both innovation-based solutions and improvements to water governance.

To help reduce and adapt to the impact of climate change on water resources and food production, we highlight both innovation-based solutions and improvements to water governance.

Solutions

We take things for granted every day. In the morning it’s easy to take the coffee cart on the sidewalk outside the office for granted, despite it allowing us to start day with a warm cup of caffeine and a buttered roll. At 7a.m. there are likely few thoughts around the logistics necessary for the cart to be fully stocked and in the right location each morning, let alone the details around where the flour and coffee beans were grown. Being able to easily get breakfast is all the matters. In the Citi GPS Sustainability series, we have written extensively about climate change. Specifically, in Food and Climate Change: Creating Sustainable Food Systems for a Net Zero Future, we discussed the impact of food production on greenhouse gas emissions, and in Food Security: Tackling the Current Crisis and Building Future Resilience, we explored how climate change can heighten the ever-present global threat of food insecurity. But the big issue we may be overlooking is the relationship between food, water, and climate change. What happens if changes in climate affect the availability of water resources? And with water already stressed in many regions, could climate change lead to pressures on food production? In our new report, we investigate the connections between water, food, and climate change — known as the water, food, and climate nexus — with particular attention given to the impacts that too much or too little water could have on food production. Staple crops — rice, wheat, maize (corn), and soybeans — make up around two-thirds of the world’s food calories, making them critically important to consumers worldwide. Global production of these staple crops is highly concentrated in regions known as “breadbaskets,” and at least 72% of the global production of each of these crops is found in just five regions. Any changes to the growing conditions in these regions would have huge global consequences. In our analysis, we looked at the water stress levels in these five regions and found that in a “business-as-usual” climate change scenario, many countries have an extremely high risk of water stress in 2050. India is of particular concern, with over 70% of rice and 78% of wheat currently produced in areas that could have high-to-significant water stress in 2050. We then looked at the materiality of staple food production in each country, including whether the country is a large producer or exporter of these staple crops and the size of the country’s population. We found that a failure, or even a reduction, in crop yields in any of these countries would have a material impact on global food security, with cereal prices rising by 1% to 28% and an additional 1 million to 180 million people potentially going hungry. Moreover, nearly $3 trillion of business revenues of publicly listed companies could be affected. The good news is there are plenty of technological solutions that can help us avoid this dismal scenario, but good governance will also be important. We explore these opportunities in the report. The food, water, climate change nexus is critical and should not be taken for granted. Food Insecurity, Water, and Climate Change Agricultural production is highly susceptible to changes in climate. It is also reliant on the availability of water resources, which are already stressed in many regions important for food production. These water pressure will increase with climate chnage.&nbsp; Food Production At Risk We analyzed crop-producing regions in key "breadbaskets" and found that large portions of food production occur in areas forecast to face varying levels of water stress risk due to climate change. Including all levels of water stress, we also assign a "materiality" rating to assess the impact of global food security from a decline in a region's food production. This rating is based on crop production levels, export levels, population size, and other water indicators such as drought. Potential Impacts of No Action Doing nothing to prevent a potential water and food crisis will not only impact people's health and nutrition, but could also cause economic damage and political instability.&nbsp; Solutions To help reduce and adapt to the impact of climate change on water resources and food production, we highlight both innovation-based solutions and improvements to water governance.

Climate change would have a devastating impact on water resources, which would in turn affect food production. Many of the regions that are important for the production and exportation of staple crops have a medium-to-extremely-high risk of water stress under our "business-as-usual" climate change scenario. Technologies and innovation can help but we need to act soon and elevate water in our sustainable agendas and discussions. 


Solutions for Tackling this Critical Nexus

Climate change would have a devastating impact on water resources, which would in turn affect food production. Many of the regions that are important for the production and exportation of staple crops have a medium-to-extremely-high risk of water stress under our "business-as-usual" climate change scenario. 

Food, Water, and Climate Change

The Road to COP28

Jason Channell joins Rashmi Ghai, Global Head of Sustainability & ESG, Citi Commercial Bank, and James Cameron, Chair of the Board at Crown Agents, Advocate and award-winning authority in the global climate change movement to discuss the barriers and solutions to capital flow for climate change and for broader development in emerging markets.  

Transition Talks: E3: Unleashing Capital for Practical Climate Solutions

Planting for tomorrow: Weaving sustainability into the path toward food security

Rising global food insecurity has come under the spotlight following a series of geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Food security concerns have also been compounded by the effects of a shifting climate and increasing evidence of damage caused by accelerating biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Amid concerns about immediate and long-term food security, agriculture policies are caught in the crossfire between short-term food security and sustainability.