Artificial Intelligence (AI)

We expect generative AI tools to increasingly automate many aspects of health professionals&rsquo; work, for example providing tools that help automate diagnosis and prescription. We also expect to see AI agents providing services that aren&rsquo;t economic for human healthcare professionals, for example calling older adults each week to see if they need any appointments, or following up after someone is discharged after an operation, perhaps to ensure a dressing has been changed. Most consumers already use &ldquo;Dr Google&rdquo; but many are already engaging with LLMs directly, and receiving health advice sounding as if it came from a doctor. We therefore expect that generative AI will fundamentally change the way healthcare is delivered. For family doctors, the &ldquo;diagnose and prescribe&rdquo; part of the job is likely to be largely automated; for nurses and other professionals we believe that a lot of mundane work will eliminated.
Read the report <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/rendition/digidoc/eppublic/public/pdfRenderContainer.do?data=ZG9jaWQ9MzAxNzk2NjkmdGl0bGU9VTIxaGNuUWdWR2hwYm10cGJtY2diMjRnUVVrZ2FXNGdTR1ZoYkhSb1kyRnlaVG9nVUdGeWRDQTFJT0tBa3lCVWFHVWdjbTlzWlNCdlppQmpiR2x1YVdOcFlXNXpJRG9nUVVrZ2FYTWdiR2xyWld4NUlIUnZJSEJ5YjJadmRXNWtiSGtnWTJoaGJtZGxJSGRvWVhRZ2JXOXpkQ0JrYjJOMGIzSnpJR1J2JmRldmljZVR5cGU9REVTS1RPUCZwZGZGaWxlTmFtZT0mcGxhdGZvcm09Nzgmc291cmNlX2lkPTAmdmlld09wdGlvbj1wZGZPbmx5JmNoYW5uZWw9Y2l0aXZlbG9jaXR5JnN1YkNoYW5uZWw9V2Vi" data-link-source="tiny">here</a>.&nbsp;

Part 5 – The Role of Clinicians

We believe that in time, AI will transform healthcare, gradually but profoundly.

Smart Thinking on AI in Health

What’s Happened in AI in Health, and What’s Coming Next

This is the first of five reports focusing on AI in healthcare. We believe that in time, AI will transform healthcare, gradually but profoundly. So far AI&rsquo;s impact has been modest, with interesting developments in radiology, BioPharma and in a handful of health-specific admin systems. In the next few years, however, AI is likely to automate a good deal of health administration, saving time and money. We also expect AI to revolutionize the BioPharma industry because the transformer technology that can understand ordinary languages, and which is driving innovations like ChatGPT, can also be used to analyze molecules like proteins and DNA. In the long term we believe AI will fundamentally change the relationship between doctors and patients. We believe diagnoses will become increasingly automated: over time, family doctors will become more like health coaches and specialists will become more productive, attempting more personalized and ambitious interventions.
Read the full report <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/rendition/digidoc/eppublic/public/pdfRenderContainer.do?data=ZG9jaWQ9MzAxNDMyMTkmdGl0bGU9VTIxaGNuUWdWR2hwYm10cGJtY2diMjRnUVVrZ2FXNGdTR1ZoYkhSb09pQU5VR0Z5ZENBeElPS0FreUJQZG1WeWRtbGxkeUE2SUZkb1lYVGlnSmx6SUdoaGNIQmxibVZrSUdsdUlFRkpJR2x1SUdobFlXeDBhQ3dnWVc1a0lIZG9ZWFRpZ0pseklHTnZiV2x1WnlCdVpYaDAmZGV2aWNlVHlwZT1ERVNLVE9QJnBkZkZpbGVOYW1lPSZwbGF0Zm9ybT0xMDkmc291cmNlX2lkPTAmdmlld09wdGlvbj1wZGZPbmx5JmNoYW5uZWw9Y2l0aXZlbG9jaXR5JnN1YkNoYW5uZWw9V2Vi" data-link-source="tiny">here</a>.

Part 1 – Overview 

AI is Increasingly Disrupting Radiology

This is our second report on Smart Thinking on AI in Healthcare. Seven years ago there were almost no AI-enabled devices being approved by the FDA but they&rsquo;ve grown roughly in a straight line, and now ~40% of all radiology devices being approved are AI enabled. Sales of AI-enabled diagnostic equipment are likely to grow at 33% CAGR over the next five years, according to independent forecasters. In some areas AI is now just a cost of doing business; in others it&rsquo;s possible to provide AI as a service, particularly when serving BioPharma. The path won&rsquo;t be completely smooth, however, because many doctors are reluctant to embrace AI-enabled devices. The FDA has tried to encourage innovation, however, and as a result AI-driven devices are typically launched in the U.S., rather than in Europe. Companies say the main barrier to innovation is now the lack of clarity around reimbursement.
Read the full report <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/rendition/authfilelinksvcs/eppublic/V1/file?paramData=ZmlsZU5hbWU9L2dsaW4vcnNjaF9wZGZfMzAxNDUyMTMucGRmJnBsYXRmb3JtSWQ9MTA5JmRvY0lkPTMwMTQ1MjEz" data-link-source="tiny">here</a>.&nbsp;

Part 2 – Medical Devices

AI is Likely to Automate Many Tasks, Relieving Staff,  Reducing Costs, and Speeding Clinical Care

This is the third report in our series, Smart Thinking on AI in Healthcare. Administration accounts for roughly a quarter of all health spending and also contributes significantly to clinician burnout. AI-driven automation could save perhaps 25-30% of admin costs, benefitting staff, improving the patient experiences, and saving time and money. Faster information flows between the various parts of the healthcare system are likely to mean they will become more integrated, focusing more and more on the benefits for the consumer, who should be at the heart of everything. A number of companies &ndash; large and small -- are debuting products that offer ambient administration, in which a smart speaker listens to conversations between patients and clinicians, and drafts clinical notes. We&rsquo;re optimistic that as these systems improve, doctors should be able to spend more time helping their patients, and less time on paperwork.
Read the report <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/rendition/digidoc/eppublic/public/pdfRenderContainer.do?data=ZG9jaWQ9MzAxNDgyNjQmdGl0bGU9VTIxaGNuUWdWR2hwYm10cGJtY2diMjRnUVVrZ2FXNGdTR1ZoYkhSb1kyRnlaVG9nVUdGeWRDQXpJT0tBa3lCSVpXRnNkR2dnUVdSdGFXNXBjM1J5WVhScGIyNGdPaUJCU1NCcGN5QnNhV3RsYkhrZ2RHOGdZWFYwYjIxaGRHVWdiV0Z1ZVNCMFlYTnJjeXdnY21Wc2FXVjJhVzVuSUhOMFlXWm1MQ0J5WldSMVkybHVaeUJqYjNOMGN5d2dZVzVrSUhOd1pXVmthVzVuSUdOc2FXNXBZMkZzSUdOaGNtVT0mZGV2aWNlVHlwZT1ERVNLVE9QJnBkZkZpbGVOYW1lPSZwbGF0Zm9ybT03OCZzb3VyY2VfaWQ9MCZ2aWV3T3B0aW9uPXBkZk9ubHkmY2hhbm5lbD1jaXRpdmVsb2NpdHkmc3ViQ2hhbm5lbD1XZWI=" data-link-source="tiny">here</a>.

Part 3 – Health Administration 

AI is Likely to Disrupt Biopharma, Moving It Away from “Drug Discovery” and toward “Drug Design”

We believe AI is especially important for biopharma, because AI can understand biology in a way humans cannot. The reason that ChatGPT is so impressive is that the underlying Transformer technology can &ldquo;understand&rdquo; ordinary languages like English. Transformers can also &ldquo;understand&rdquo; large bio-molecules like proteins. Traditionally drug development has involved informed trial and error to discover molecules, followed by long, expensive clinical trials, in which more than 90% of drugs fail. With AI drug development can move closer to drug design, speeding up the process and creating better-targeted drugs. Clinical trials can move from exploring the properties of a molecule that has been discovered to confirming that the design works as intended. This is likely to shorten their duration, and make the likelihood of success much greater. Biopharma moves slowly, but over time we believe it will be disrupted more by AI than almost any other industry.
Read the report <a href="https://www.citivelocity.com/rendition/authfilelinksvcs/eppublic/V1/file?paramData=ZmlsZU5hbWU9L2dsaW4vcnNjaF9wZGZfMzAxNjMzMzMucGRmJnBsYXRmb3JtSWQ9MTA5JmRvY0lkPTMwMTYzMzMz" data-link-source="tiny">here</a>.&nbsp;

Part 4 - Biopharma

AI is Likely to Profoundly Change What Most Doctors Do 

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